Top 10 Most Competitive N.C. Senate Seats

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

At a recent meeting with business leaders coordinated by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, newly elected Senate Majority Leader Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) made no bones about the fact that his top priority for 2010 is maintaining a Democratic majority in the state Senate. Nesbitt expressed confidence that the Senate Democratic Caucus could hold its 10-seat margin over Republicans, bolstered by the fundraising prowess of Senate President Pro Tempore Marc Basnight (D-Dare), who Nesbitt referred to as "the best political fundraiser" he had ever seen.

Many longtime political experts, however, are suggesting that 2010 could provide the GOP its best opportunity to wrest control of the Senate chamber for the first time since Reconstruction. Marginal approval ratings for President Obama (48 percent according to both Public Policy Polling (PPP) and the Civitas Institute) and low approval ratings for N.C. Gov. Beverly Perdue (27 percent according to PPP and 32 percent according to Civitas Institute) indicate substantial voter dissatisfaction. The current state of the economy certainly is not helping the situation and is unlikely to improve enough by the November 2010 General Election to measurably improve public sentiment.

With that in mind, we thought it would be an opportune time to take a look at the 10 most competitive state Senate races in 2008 and how they are shaping up for 2010. Without a doubt, these districts are top targets for both Democrats and Republicans. In each of these 10 seats, the 2008 victor won with less than 55 percent of the vote.

Senate District 5: The 2010 election for freshman Sen. Don Davis (D-Greene) is likely to resemble his 2008 contest, since old rival, former Rep. Louis Pate (R-Wayne), is seeking a rematch. Sen. Davis won the seat and replaced long-time Sen. John Kerr (D-Wayne) with 52.9 percent of the vote. While this district is, and will likely remain, competitive, it has a marked Democratic lean. President Barack Obama (D), U.S. Senator Kay Hagan (D) and Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) all won here in 2008. One data point that may give Sen. Davis pause is the fact that less than 10 percent of the district's voters reside in Greene County, Sen. Davis's home county, while over 90 percent of voters live in the district's two other counties, Pitt and Wayne.

Senate District 8 (OPEN SEAT): Sen. R.C. Soles (D-Columbus) won this race in 2008 with 48.7 percent of the vote against Republican Bettie Fennell who captured 45.8 percent and Libertarian Rachel Joiner Merrill who took 5.5 percent. Sen. Soles, who has been indicted for shooting a man who allegedly tried to break into his house, has announced that he will not seek reelection in 2010. Democrats maintain a voter registration advantage here, but voter performance is more representative of a swing district. In 2008 voters overwhelmingly supported John McCain (R) for President but stood behind Kay Hagan (D) for U.S. Senate and Beverly Perdue (D) for Governor. Fennell is already campaigning, and rumors are circulating that former Democratic Rep. David Redwine may throw his hat in the ring. Redwine's candidacy would be particularly attractive to Democrats, not only because of his political experience, but also because he hails from Brunswick County, which holds more than half the district's voters. Fennell resides in Pender County.

Senate District 9 (OPEN SEAT): Sen. Julia Boseman (D-New Hanover) won her third term in this Senate seat in 2008 when she bested Republican challenger Michael Lee by capturing 51.7 percent of the vote. After Boseman announced that she was not running in 2010, Republican candidates Lee and fellow attorney Thom Goolsby quickly initiated their campaigns. No Democratic challenger has made a formal announcement. Republican voter registration in District 9 is at 34.2 percent (close to the 35 percent registration level that generally represents a level playing field for Republicans), but it is the higher-than-average number of unaffiliated voters at 27.5 percent that makes this race a toss up. John McCain (R) beat President Obama by one-and-a-half points here in 2008, while Kay Hagan (D) handily won, and Beverly Perdue (D) topped Pat McCrory (R) by two points.

Senate District 12: Freshman Sen. David Rouzer (R-Johnston) narrowly defeated popular Democrat Kay Carroll in what many considered to be one of the anomalies of 2008 due to the closeness of this race. District 12 became an open seat when former Sen. Fred Smith left the Senate to run for Governor. Although GOP candidates for president, U.S. Senate and governor all won with 15-point margins or more in District 12, Rouzer only beat Carroll with 51.9 percent of the vote. While the right Democrat could give Rouzer a run for his money, the 38.4 percent Republican registration of this district suggests that a Democratic victory here would be unlikely.

Senate District 15: Sen. Neal Hunt (R-Wake) beat Republican-turned-Democrat Chris Mintz in 2008 with 52.8 percent of the vote to earn his third term in the Senate representing District 15. In this competitive Wake County seat, voter registration currently stands at 36.4 percent Democrat and 36.4 percent Republican, while 27.1 percent of voters are unaffiliated. Marquee match-ups in this district are almost always nail-bitters. President Obama (D) won here with 50.2 percent of the vote, Kay Hagan (D) with 49.7 percent, and Pat McCrory (R) with 52.3 percent.

Senate District 24: Sen. Tony Foriest (D-Alamance) represents a district that has seen, and will undoubtedly continue to see, very close elections. In 2008 Sen. Foriest won reelection to his second term with 52.5 percent of the vote over challenger Rick Gunn, who has announced plans for a rematch this year. Democrats hold a notable voter registration advantage here, but historic voter performance makes this a swing district. In 2008, John McCain (R) won this district with 53.3 percent of the vote, while both Kay Hagan (D) and Beverly Perdue (D) narrowly defeated their Republican opponents.

Senate District 43 (OPEN SEAT): In 2008, Sen. David Hoyle (D-Gaston) was the only Democrat on the General Election ballot in Gaston County who captured more votes than his Republican opponent (non-partisan races excluded). He barely defeated Republican challenger Kathy Harrington with 51.5 percent of the vote. Hoyle has announced that he will retire at the end of 2010 after serving nine terms in the Senate. Both Harrington and current Rep. Wil Neumann (R-Gaston) have expressed their intentions to run for this Republican-leaning seat. Republican voter registration in the district stands at 37.9 percent, making this the most likely Senate seat to switch from Democrat to Republican in 2010, especially considering that Democrats will not enjoy the advantage of incumbency.

Senate District 45: The fact that Sen. Steve Goss (D-Watauga) took 53.9 percent of the vote in this district is impressive given Republican voter registration here is 43.7 percent, compared to only 32.5 percent for Democrats. In the 2008 Presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial elections, Republican candidates won by at least 10 percentage points, and in some cases much more. Sen. Goss, who hails from Watauga County, home to 40 percent of the district's voters, is now serving his second term in the Senate, demonstrating his ability to get elected in District 45. He currently has only one announced challenger, Republican Dan Soucek, a retired Army pilot who works with Samaritan's Purse.

Senate District 46: Sen. Debbie Clary (R-Cleveland) won her first term in the state Senate in 2008 with 50.5 percent of the vote after serving seven terms in the state House. She defeated Democrat Keith Melton in an open seat formerly held by current Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (D). Republican registration is at 32 percent, and Republicans easily won here in the 2008 races for President and Governor, and Elizabeth Dole (R) bested Kay Hagan (D) by a narrow margin for U.S. Senate.

Senate District 47: After see-sawing back and forth between Republicans and Democrats, Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood) was able to hold District 47 for his second consecutive term, and third term overall, in 2008. He beat a familiar foe, former Sen. Keith Presnell, with 53.6 percent of the vote. Sen. Queen's election was one of the bright spots for Democrats in a district where Republicans won races for President, U.S. Senate, Governor, and most other statewide offices. Geography may play a larger role in this district than others due to the fact the 47th District includes all or part of six mountain counties (Avery, Haywood, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, and Yancey). Sen. Queen hails from the most populous part of the district, Haywood County, which contains 31 percent of the district's voters. At last count, three Republicans are vying to challenge Sen. Queen in this toss up district.

For more information on these and other races, visit our Election's Page at www.ncfef.org.

As always, thank you for reading.

Sincerely,