Top 10 Most Competitive N.C. House Seats

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Last week, we took a look at the 10 most competitive North Carolina Senate races in 2008 and how those districts are shaping up for 2010. This week, we will review the 10 most competitive state House races from the last election and provide a preview of those key districts. (There were actually 18 House districts in 2008 where the victor won with less than 55 percent of the vote, so be sure to check out the NCFEF News section of our website in the coming days for an expanded analysis of all 18 of these districts.)

Before we get started, however, we would be remiss if we did not review some of the highlights from what has been a very eventful week.

Scott Brown's (R) victory over Martha Coakley (D) in the Massachusetts special election to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) has captured national attention. A Republican victory in this Democratic bastion has not only sent shock waves through the U.S. Congress, taken away a Democratic 60-seat supermajority in the U.S. Senate, and caused Pres. Obama and congressional leaders to rethink their strategy for heath care reform, but it has also left Republican politicos salivating at the thought that Brown's triumph may signal a GOP landslide in 2010, similar to 1994. Time will tell if this is an indication of things to come, but no doubt it will embolden Republicans and up the ante as both Republican and Democratic candidates cater to an ever-increasing bloc of unaffiliated voters.

Closer to home, state Rep. Margaret Dickson (D-Cumberland) has been chosen to fill the state Senate seat vacated by former Sen. Tony Rand. Dickson, who is currently serving her fourth term in the House, earned a score of 57.8 on the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation's "Business Ratings of the 2009 North Carolina General Assembly." Rand, who left the Senate to head up the state's Parole Commission, received a score of 69.0 in the 2009 Business Ratings. Both scores fall into the "Swing" category, meaning the legislator is a "frequent" supporter of business and free enterprise principals.

Dickson's departure creates yet another open seat in the N.C. House. To date, we know of 15 House seats from which the incumbent is retiring or to which the sitting member was appointed to fill an unexpired term and has yet to stand for election. This past week, both Rep. Carolyn Justus (R-Henderson) and Rep. Curtis Blackwood (R-Union) announced they would not be seeking re-election in 2010.

On the state Senate side, long-time Sen. Charlie Albertson (D-Duplin) and Sen. Eddie Goodall (R-Union) both announced plans to retire at the end of the term. The complete list of retirements, open seats, and candidates can be viewed online on the Election Tracker portion of our website.

Now, on to the 10 most competitive House races of 2008, and where those districts stand:

House District 3: Rep. Alice Graham Underhill (D-Craven) has held this seat for four terms despite several very close elections, most recently edging Republican Norman Sanderson with 49.9 percent of the vote to Sanderson's 47.7 percent in 2008. Libertarian candidate Herb Sobel took the remaining 2.4 percent. This year's election will likely not be any easier for Rep. Underhill, as Sanderson is planning a rematch. This Eastern North Carolina district consistently favors Republicans running for national offices, but often sides with Democrats when it comes to state races. In 2008, John McCain (R) and Elizabeth Dole (R) won handily here in races for President and U.S. Senate, respectively, while Beverly Perdue (D), who calls Craven County home, won the district with over 54 percent in her race for Governor. Overall, the district is almost evenly split between Democrat and Republican voter registration with nearly 24 percent of the district registered unaffiliated.

House District 10: Rep. Van Braxton (D-Lenoir) beat back a strong challenge from the seat's former occupant Stephen LaRoque (R-Lenoir) to win a second term in 2008 with only 51.6 percent of the vote. While voter registration favors Democrats in this district (55.4 percent are registered Democrat), it behaves much more like a swing district. Following the trend of the past several decades, this district votes (often by wide margins) for Republicans in national contests, but down-ballot races are much closer. In 2008, John McCain (R), Elizabeth Dole (R), and Beverly Perdue (D) all won significant victories here, while just a few percentage points decided many Council of State elections in this district.

House District 36: This district, held by Rep. Nelson Dollar (R-Wake) is somewhat of an anomaly. Of all the 2008 competitive House districts in North Carolina, Rep. Dollar is the only Republican to represent a district that was won by President Obama (D).* Dollar narrowly beat Democrat Al Swanstrom carrying 51.2 percent of the vote. Over the past six years, the voter registration of this district has changed dramatically. In 2004, GOP voters represented 40.7 percent of the district, with Democrats at 33.2 percent and unaffiliated voters at 26 percent. Today, Republican registration has dropped over five percentage points to 35.3%, Democratic numbers increased slightly to 34.2 percent, and unaffiliated voters jumped to over 30.3 percent, well over the statewide average of 22.8 percent. This is truly a swing district, splitting its vote between Republicans and Democrats up and down the ballot. In 2008, while President Obama (D) and Kay Hagan (D) edged their opponents by small margins for President and U.S. Senate, this district voted for five Republicans in the 10 Council of State races, including Governor.

(*Pres. Obama won two other NC House Districts currently represented by Republicans, House District 98 represented by Rep. Thom Tillis (R-Mecklenburg) and House District 103 represented by Rep. Jim Gulley (R-Mecklenburg). Both Tillis and Gulley ran unopposed in 2008.)

House District 86: On his second try for the seat, Rep. Hugh Blackwell (R-Burke) won the right to represent the 86th House District in 2008. Rep. Blackwell squeaked by long-time incumbent Democrat Walter Church (D-Burke) with 51.6 percent of the vote to 48.4 percent, which was a mirror image of the margin Blackwell lost by in 2006 (48.5 to 51.5 percent). By both voter registration and past voter performance, this district is a swing district. Both Democrats and Republicans have seen decreasing shares of the electorate, while the percentage of unaffiliated voters has increased. Consistent with this swing district's mentality, in 2008 John McCain (R) and Kay Hagan (D) both won, while District 86 voters sided with five Republicans in the 10 Council of State contests, including Pat McCrory (R) for Governor.

House District 88 (OPEN SEAT): After two narrow election victories, Rep. Ray Warren (D-Alexander) has decided not to run for re-election in 2010. Rep. Warren narrowly ousted then-incumbent Mark Hollo (R-Alexander) in 2006, and barely held on to the seat in a rematch in 2008 with a margin of victory of just over 200 votes. This is currently the most Republican seat in the House represented by a Democrat, and without Rep. Warren on the ballot, this district represents one of the best pick-up opportunities for the GOP. Republican registration exceeds 42 percent, and in 2008, Republican candidates easily won races for President, U.S. Senate, and Governor here. According to his Facebook page, Alexander County native and local businessman Robert Austin intends to seek the Republican nomination for this seat, but the big question is: will former Rep. Mark Hollo run again?

House District 90: Rep. Sarah Stevens (R-Surry) scored a rare pick-up for Republicans in 2008, beating then-incumbent Jim Harrell (D-Surry) in a very close election. (Rep. Stevens won with just 50.6 percent of the vote.) With the exception of the Presidential race, which John McCain (R) won easily here, many statewide races were close in the 90th House District. In the U.S. Senate race, Elizabeth Dole (R) took only 50.9 percent of the vote, and Pat McCrory (R) won here with only 49.4 percent. The 35.8 percent Republican registration means the GOP has effectively reached parity with the Democrats.

House District 93: After upending long-time Rep. Gene Wilson (R-Watauga) in 2006, Rep. Cullie Tarleton (D-Watauga) managed to hold on to this swing district after a strong challenge in 2008 from Republican newcomer Daniel Soucek (R-Watauga). Rep. Tarleton won 51.7 percent of the vote in a district that seemed unwilling to give any candidate a wide margin of victory. John McCain (R) took only 51.3 percent of the vote, Kay Hagan (D) bested Elizabeth Dole (R) with just 48.7 percent, and Pat McCrory (R) won the district with 49.9 percent of the vote. Republicans maintain a voter registration advantage, but a high number of unaffiliated voters (over 28 percent) keep this district in swing district territory. So far this election cycle, Rep. Tarleton has picked up just one potential challenger, Republican Ashe County attorney Jonathan Jordan. It is interesting to note that two-thirds of the district's voters reside in Watauga County.

House District 110: When Debbie Clary (R-Cleveland) ran for and won an open seat in the N.C. Senate in 2008, it opened the door for Rep. Pearl Burris-Floyd (R-Gaston) to win election to the state House. Burris-Floyd, who is the only African-American Republican in the General Assembly, claimed this race with just 50.5 percent of the vote over Cleveland County Democrat Davy Lowman. The surprising thing about this district is not that it elected a Republican, but that the election was so close. This district typically hands GOP candidates easy victories, and in 2008, McCain (R), Dole (R), and McCrory (R) all won here without breaking a sweat. In fact, no Democrat running for statewide office won this district in 2008. Money may have had something to do with the closeness of the vote. Rep. Burris-Floyd's opponent spent over $70,000, while she spent less than $15,000 on her campaign. Thus far, we are aware of no challengers to Rep. Burris-Floyd in 2010.

House District 113: Rep. David Guice (R-Transylvania) won his first term to the N.C. House in 2008 by a slim margin over Democrat Tom Thomas, winning with only 50.7 percent of the vote in a race where he was outspent by a two-to-one margin. In this Western North Carolina District, the 2008 race was an open seat contest after Rep. Trudi Walend (R-Transylvania) chose not to seek re-election. Despite Guice's close race, this district is solidly Republican and favored the GOP candidates in every statewide race in the last election. While Rep. Guice has stated his plans to seek re-election, no challengers have stepped forward.

House District 116: Rep. Jane Whilden (D-Buncombe) won this open seat race in 2008 over Republican Tim Moffitt (R-Buncombe) with only 51.7 percent of the vote. Rep. Whilden's victory here was a pick-up for the Democrats, as Republicans had held this seat for over a decade. Nonetheless, close elections are commonplace in this Western North Carolina district. In 2008, John McCain (R) garnered a 50.1 percent win, Kay Hagan (D) earned just 50.9 percent, and Beverly Perdue (D) edged Pat McCrory (R) with 50.4 percent of the vote. With unaffiliated voters making up a larger than average share of the electorate (over 27 percent), this district is likely to see many competitive elections in the future. In order to hold the seat, Rep. Whilden may have to raise and spend significant sums as she did in 2008. She totaled over $260,000 in campaign expenditures while her opponent, Tim Moffitt, spent just over $120,000. With Moffitt reportedly contemplating a rematch, the upcoming election here could be close (and expensive) again.

The candidate filing period opens in about two weeks on February 8. The NCFEF is pleased to bring you the latest in campaign news as the election season officially begins, and we appreciate your interest and support.

Sincerely,