3rd Quarter Campaign Finance Reports

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Election Day 2010 is just five days away, and the electoral environment remains highly competitive, volatile and unpredictable. Control of the U.S. Congress and the North Carolina General Assembly hangs in the balance. Those who hold the gavel in the State Legislature after the dust settles will set the direction for North Carolina for years to come, not only from a policy perspective, but also from a political perspective, as redistricting will be on the agenda in 2011.

The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is working to help you make sense of it all, and we hope you will plan to join us for a comprehensive review of Election Day within 20 hours after the polls close. We're hosting a Post-Election Briefing at the N.C. Farm Bureau Federation at 3 p.m. on November 3 to review and analyze election results. Let us know if you can join us by sending an RSVP. The electoral landscape could be very different on November 3rd, so get a head start on understanding the composition of the next N.C. General Assembly.

While many races for the N.C. House and Senate remain very competitive, we're gradually getting additional pieces of the electoral puzzle in the form of 3rd quarter campaign finance reports. As those reports come into the State Board of Elections and are posted online, we're working feverishly to pull together a comprehensive review before the election. Campaign finance reports from the parties and several key legislative races are in, and they are providing some keen insights.

PARTY MONEY: Among the most important campaign finance reports are those filed by the State Republican and Democratic parties. In the past, the Democratic party has held significant advantages over its Republican counterpart; however this year, that advantage has narrowed. In the 3rd quarter of 2008, the Republican party raised $1.5 million and the Democratic party raised almost $5.9 million: a 4-to-1 Democratic advantage. This year, Republicans have raised $3.3 million, and the Democrats took in $3.7 million in the 3rd quarter: much closer to a 1-to-1 match. This represents an unusual financial parity that could make a significant difference in competitive races across the state where Democrats have typically outspent Republicans by wide margins. Overall in this election cycle, the Democratic party has spent about $5.9 million to the Republicans' $4.1 million.

CAUCUS LEADERSHIP MONEY: Large portions of each party's fundraising came from legislative leaders transferring big sums to their state party. Throughout this election cycle, on the Republican side, Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger has given a total of $421,000, Sen. Richard Stevens $231,000, Sen. Robert Rucho $207,250, Rep. Thom Tillis $183,500, Sen. Peter Brunstetter $175,000, Sen. Harry Brown $175,000, Sen. Neal Hunt $164,025, Sen. Tom Apodaca $120,000, and House Minority Leader Skip Stam $97,790, among others.

Through this election cycle, the Democratic party received large contributions from leaders like Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight who has given a total of $760, 500, Speaker Joe Hackney $707, 075, Sen. Linda Garrou $279,200, Senate Majority Leader Martin Nesbitt $156,450, and Sen. Daniel Clodfelter $110,550, among others.

Both Sen. Basnight and Speaker Hackney had better 3rd quarter fundraising hauls in 2010 than they did in 2008; Basnight took in $400,220 and Hackney brought in $370,599. But Sen. Basnight's fundraising is down slightly for the election cycle overall ($1.37 million this year compared to $1.5 million in 2008), while Speaker Hackney's is up ($1.1 million in 2010 versus $846,457 in 2008).

In some key legislative districts, 3rd quarter campaign finance reports are helping to shed some light on where those races stand. Not all campaign finance reports have been posted yet, but in several key races all candidates' filings were available. Here is a look at some competitive districts where complete campaign finance information was available.

NC HOUSE

N.C. House District 44 is a Leaning Democratic district that Democrats usually have little trouble winning. But the fact that the incumbent was only recently appointed to the position, we're in a political environment favorable to Republicans, and the GOP challenger has raised a considerable amount is making this race very competitive. Rep. Diane Parfitt (D), who has held this seat only a matter of months, has raised nearly $200,000 (including a $20,000 loan) and spent over $160,000 on her campaign throughout this election. While these numbers are good, her challenger, Johnny Dawkins (R) isn't too far behind. He has raised more than $140,000 and spent $113,000 in this cycle so far. This is a clear example of Republicans running hard in nearly every N.C. House district in the state and making Democrats work for every seat they get in the General Assembly. But this district isn't one that either party can count on yet.

House Majority Leader Hugh Holliman's (D) narrow victory in 2008 set up a rematch against challenger Rayne Brown (R) in N.C. House District 81. Rep. Holliman hugely outspent Brown in 2008, and while he will again have a financial advantage, it is much smaller. He also has had to contend with multiple outside groups campaigning against him. Through the entire election cycle, Rep. Holliman has raised over $330,000 and spent more than $265,000, while Brown has taken in almost $110,000 and spent nearly $70,000 on her campaign. This is a vast increase over the $15,000 she spent in 2008. While Rep. Holliman's financial advantages over his opponent remain substantial, several other factors are working against him, making this race too close to call.

NC SENATE

The race to replace long-time Sen. R.C. Soles (D) in N.C. Senate District 8 is very close in financial terms. Former Rep. David Redwine (D) had a big financial haul in the 3rd quarter despite polls consistently showing him trailing. He raised $350,000 in the 3rd quarter alone (with the help of a $56,000 loan) and overall has taken in $367,000. So far he's spent a total of nearly $340,000. Not to be outdone, his opponent, Bill Rabon (R) has raised a total of $350,000 (including a $50,000 loan) and spent nearly $290,000 on his campaign this election cycle. Will Redwine's relatively late financial surge help him close the gap with Rabon? This is a key race to watch on election night.

N.C. Senate District 9 is a Swing District that often sees competitive, expensive elections. This year the seat is open, and while this race is pricey, it's unlikely it will reach the same financial proportions it has in the past. Thom Goolsby (R) won a competitive primary in May, which drained some of his resources. This election cycle he has raised nearly $500,000; however more than $331,000 came from his own pocket. Spending on his campaign has hit nearly $450,000 but that includes partial repayment of personal loans to the tune of about $86,000. The 3rd quarter fundraising became critical for Jim Leutze (D) when it became known that the Democratic party would not be investing resources into this district on his behalf. In the absence of that help, Leutze has raised a total of about $120,000 and spent nearly $105,000. As we've noted before, the increased fundraising of the Republican party is being supplemented by GOP candidates that can fund large portions of their campaigns from their own pockets, and this is a prime example. This combination has put considerable pressure on the Democrats' resources around the state, which is evident by the financial disparity here.

N.C. Senate District 19 is one of the hottest State Senate contests, and both candidates have the resources to wage aggressive campaigns. Sen. Margaret Dickson (D), who was appointed to fill the unexpired term of former Majority Leader Tony Rand (D), has raised nearly $530,000 (including a $50,000 loan) and spent over $490,000 so far. Her opponent, Wesley Meredith (R), who has been running a controversial and hard-hitting ad against Dickson, has raised just over $400,000 (including a $130,000 loan) and spent about $380,000. In a district Democrats are used to taking for granted, it's clear that this contest is going down to the wire.

The rematch of the 2008 contest in N.C. Senate District 24 is getting expensive again, though this time, Republican Rick Gunn is the financial leader. He's raised a total of $510,000 (including a loan of $42,200) and spent almost all of it, leaving just $624.08 in the bank at the end of the 3rd quarter. Sen. Tony Foriest (D) has raised nearly $375,000 and spent about $350,000 on his campaign this cycle. All told, spending in this district has pushed beyond the $800,000 mark. An important thing to highlight in this district is Libertarian Barry Coe, who has not raised or spent any money in his campaign, but could earn enough votes to affect the outcome in what is expected to be a very close race.

Sen. Steve Goss (D) has a tenuous hold on N.C. Senate District 45, and the most recent campaign finance reports underscore this point. For this entire election cycle, Sen. Goss has raised almost $110,000 and spent just over $80,000. His opponent, Dan Soucek (R), has received significant support from the State Republican party and as a result has had nearly $300,000 of receipts and spent over $250,000 on his campaign. It's in districts like this where the Republican party's improved fundraising has created an opportunity to recapture an important Senate district.

Stay tuned for a more comprehensive assessment of 3rd quarter campaign finance reports. Thanks for reading!

Sincerely,