N.C. Senate: Democratic & GOP Cash in Virtual Dead Heat

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Campaign finance reports filed last week with the State Board of Elections show that Democratic and Republican candidates for the North Carolina Senate are in a virtual dead heat when it comes to campaign cash on hand. Although Democratic candidates for the N.C. Senate, as a whole, have operated for years with a substantial money advantage, the funding dominance the caucus has enjoyed may be dwindling. In 2nd Quarter campaign finance reports, Democratic candidates for the N.C. Senate reported a cumulative total of $2,373,698 cash on hand, while their Republican counterparts have $2,310,317 in the bank.

(To download the chart above, click on the image.)

In terms of overall fundraising for the entire election cycle - which began January 1, 2009 - Republicans Senate candidates have actually outraised their Democratic challengers. According to these latest campaign finance reports, GOP Senate candidates have raised $3,648,498 so far this cycle, and Democrats have taken in a cumulative total of $3,324,579. It is important to note when looking at these numbers that Senate Republican candidates, as a group, have loaned their own campaigns more than 35 percent of their total money raised, or $1,278,706. Thus far, Democratic candidates have contributed only $156,150 to their own campaigns. If personal contributions are removed from fundraising totals, Democrats have raised $800,000 more than Republicans from outside sources during the election cycle. (Download our report showing campaign money raised during the entire 2009-2010 election cycle through June 30, 2010, including loans made by the candidates.)

It is too early to tell exactly what these campaign finance numbers mean for November 2. Democratic fundraising capabilities appear to remain strong, but a new factor has been added to the mix: Republican challengers who can bankroll a large portion of their campaign costs.

Considering the highly competitive nature of this year's elections, money is going to be key. Democrats currently enjoy a 10-seat advantage in the N.C. Senate, but the GOP is challenging all 50 seats, even in Strong Democratic territory. This could require Democrats to spread their funds more broadly in order to cover their bases and protect their turf. Three open seat races with formidable challengers on both sides of the ticket are likely to be particularly expensive: Senate District 8, currently held by Sen. R.C. Soles (D); Senate District 9, currently held by Sen. Julia Boseman (D), and Senate District 10, currently held by Sen. Charlie Albertson (D). The GOP candidates in these races have already demonstrated a commitment to "putting some skin in the game" by investing substantial dollars into their own election efforts. Another open seat that has the potential to be expensive is Senate District 43, currently held by Sen. David Hoyle (D). Democratic candidate Annette Carter recently withdrew from the race and the local party is seeking a viable contender to run in this Strong Republican district.

Retirements and changing dynamics within the leadership of the majority caucus also could have some impact on the ability of Senate Democrats to continue to raise money from traditional sources. If this is the case, some of that money may gravitate across the aisle to Republican candidates. Senate Republican fundraising has been solid, but it may be premature to consider the current equity in campaign finance reporting as a widespread financial windfall for the GOP. Regardless, funds loaned to a campaign by a candidate spend just the same as money from other sources.

In the coming months, expect Senate Republicans to tout their campaign funding capabilities as another reason why they will capture a majority in the Senate in 2011 for the first time since Reconstruction. At the same time, expect the Senate Democrats to continue operating the efficient and effective political machine that has kept them in power for so long.

Next week we will take a look at the campaign finance reports for N.C. House candidates.

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