GOP Legislative Candidates Benefit $10-to-$1 from Outside Spending

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Now that the dust has settled somewhat from the 2010 General Election, the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation has had the opportunity to conduct a more comprehensive review of spending by outside groups in North Carolina state legislative races. Since our last report was issued in the weeks following the election, additional and updated information has become available on the extent to which independent expenditures and electioneering communications were made in N.C. Senate and N.C. House contests. The total amount spent by 11 outside groups vying to influence the outcome of elections for the State Legislature was $2,635,297.86, with nearly 92 percent of those funds being used to support Republican candidates.

As previously noted, Real Jobs NC, Americans for Prosperity, and Civitas Action spent the bulk of the money, just under $2 million. However, other groups spent considerable sums, including the previously unreported Washington, DC-based Americans for Tax Reform, which spent over $51,000 in three State Senate districts and one State House district. Other groups that were previously unreported include the NRA Political Victory Fund, Grass Roots NC Forum for Firearm Education Political Victory Fund, and Koch Industries. Also included is $200,000 spent by the State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) toward its efforts to defeat former House Majority Leader Hugh Holliman (D-Davidson) in N.C House District 81.

Much of this spending was made possible by the U.S. Supreme Court's January 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, which enabled corporations, trade associations, unions and similar entities to spend general treasury funds to expressly advocate for the election or defeat of political candidates. (Click on the image below to download a chart detailing how much each outside group spent in each legislative district, whether it was an independent expenditure or electioneering communication*, and which party benefitted.)

Top Targets for Outside Spending

Three of North Carolina's western-most State Senate districts were a magnet for outside spending. More than $830,000 -- nearly one third of all outside spending in state legislative races in North Carolina -- was poured into Senate Districts 45, 47, and 50. All three were held by Democrats prior to the 2010 election (Sens. Steve Goss, Joe Sam Queen and John Snow, respectively) but are now represented by Republicans Dan Soucek, Ralph Hise and Jim Davis. A whopping $340,000 was spent by outside groups in Senate District 47 alone, where GOP challenger Ralph Hise (R-Mitchell) was pitted against incumbent Democrat Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood). All told, over $1.5 million was spent by candidates and outside groups in this Senate race. Ralph Hise won with 55.8 percent of the vote.

On the House side, House District 81 drew the most interest, by far. Former House Majority Leader Hugh Holliman (D-Davidson) found himself in a rematch against challenger Rayne Brown (R-Davidson). SEANC targeted this district with $200,000 in television and radio ads in opposition to Holliman's re-election, while Real Jobs NC, Americans for Prosperity, and Americans for Tax Reform added another $78,000 either in support of Brown or against Holliman. Only Real Facts NC came to Holliman's aide with just over $28,000. Brown, who lost in 2008 by five percentage points, won in 2010 by 15 points.

Of the top 15 legislative districts that attracted the most outside spending, all but one switched from Democrat to Republican in the 2010 election. The lone exception was House District 45, where Rep. Rick Glazier (D-Cumberland) held on to his seat by a mere 46 votes. This is a strong indication of the significant role outside spending had in helping Republicans gain majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly for the first time in over 100 years. (Click on the image below to download a chart showing cumulative outside spending in each district.)

Real Jobs NC was the most well-financed of these groups, and not surprisingly, it spent significant sums on TV ads supplemented by direct mail. Other groups focused their expenditures almost exclusively on direct mail with some phone banking. The law prohibits entities that engage in independent expenditures or electioneering communications from coordinating those activities with a candidate's campaign or political party. Regardless, the focus of nearly all television, direct mail, and other efforts by outside groups during 2010 was jobs and the economy, and the bulk of the materials used by most groups seeking to aid Republican candidates highlighted similar themes, typically attacking Democrats for increased spending and taxes.

Lost Opportunities???

Hindsight is 20-20, as they say, and it is interesting to examine a number of districts where outside spending could have had an effect. Democratic candidates in four N.C. House districts and two N.C. Senate districts lost their elections by less than 1,100 votes, and in some case by much less. In five of these races, House Districts 4, 46, 49 and 77 and Senate District 19, the Democratic candidate outspent his or her Republican challenger but received no aid from outside groups. In another race, Senate District 50, outside spending favored the Republican candidate by a $6-to-$1 margin. Had Democratically aligned groups spent even modest amounts on electioneering communications or independent expenditures in these races, it is possible that Democrats could have held onto one or more of these seats.

On the other hand, despite sweeping nearly every competitive race in the N.C. House and N.C. Senate, the GOP and their allies may have been able to pick up even a few more seats. Rep. Diane Parfitt (D-Cumberland) was appointed to represent House District 44 just months before the election and barely survived a strong challenge from Republican challenger Johnny Dawkins despite the Democratic lean of the district. Perhaps a little more spending by Republican-aligned outside groups could have tipped the balance in Dawkins' favor. Senate Districts 7 and 25 are traditionally friendly to Democrats, but with the GOP wave cresting high during the 2010 elections, Sens. Doug Berger (D-Franklin) and Bill Purcell (D-Scotland) nearly found themselves swept out of office. If conservative outside groups had targeted these two districts, as they had others around the state, the GOP could have picked up two unexpected victories in the N.C. Senate.

Overall, it is safe to say that outside spending played a pivotal role in North Carolina's 2010 legislative elections. Considering the impact, and the increasing competitive political nature of the state, it is also a safe bet that we will see continued growth in independent expenditure and electioneering communication activities in elections to come.

Sincerely,

John L. Rustin

Executive Director

*NOTE: The State Board of Elections has defined both electioneering communications and independent expenditures in detail on their web site here. In brief, an electioneering communication is a form of communication that refers to a candidate within 60 days of a general election and does not expressly advocate for the election or defeat of the candidate. An independent expenditure is an expenditure made to expressly support or oppose the election of a candidate and is not coordinated with the candidate, the candidate's committee or a political party.

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