Senate Redistricting Map Alters N.C.'s Political Landscape

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Tuesday afternoon, State Senate Redistricting Committee Chairman Sen. Bob Rucho (R-Mecklenburg) released a complete draft of the proposed district map for the N.C. Senate. The need to reflect a decade's worth of population growth in the state, as well as the fact that Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and redistricting for the first time in over 100 years, has resulted in a map that varies substantially from the current plan. It should come as no surprise that the new map clearly favors the GOP, and the way the districts are drawn, should they remain intact as proposed, would make it difficult for Democrats to win back the chamber even in years when the political wind is blowing at their backs.

Proposed "Rucho Senate 1" District Map

Even though President Obama narrowly won North Carolina in the 2008 presidential race, he received a majority of votes in only 18 of the 50 Senate districts proposed under this plan. Democratic Gov. Beverly Perdue fairs a bit better, in that she obtained a majority in 23 of these Senate districts. Since it tends to be a lower-key affair with most voters viewing their party's nominee as a relatively generic representative of the party, the 2008 Lt. Gov's race also provides a helpful metric by which to measure the new districts. Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton won 21 of the newly proposed Senate districts.

Double-Bunking

Beyond these broad strokes, there are significant changes among individual districts that will have profound consequences for several incumbent members of the N.C. Senate. The phrase "double-bunking" refers to a situation where two incumbents are drawn into the same district. When the Voting Rights Act districts were released on June 21, we learned Sen. Linda Garrou (D-Forsyth) was drawn into Senate District 31 along with Sen. Pete Brunstetter (R-Forsyth). The Redistricting Committee chairs called attention to the fact that Garrou's former District 32 had been constructed as a near majority-minority seat and in order to give that area an opportunity to elect a minority, Sen. Garrou was drawn out of the district (since she had beaten African-American candidates in the past). With the release of the full maps on Tuesday, we learned that Sen. Don Vaughan (D-Guilford) has been drawn into Senate District 26 with Republican Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (R-Rockingham). The district has a pronounced Republican lean, and coupled with the fact that Sen. Berger is the leader of the Senate, it will be a difficult race, at best, for Sen. Vaughan.

Below is a comparison of the current senate map and the proposed new senate plan. The charts include voter registration percentages, counties in the districts (whether entirely or a portion), and which incumbent members of the Senate reside in the existing and proposed districts. (Keep in mind that when Republican registration meets 35 percent, it typically signals that Republicans face a level playing field with Democrats.)

N.C. Senate District Map Comparison (click image to download charts)

Considerable populations shifts from rural to urban and suburban areas of the state over the last 10 years made it almost inevitable that a handful of incumbent Republican senators would be drawn into the same district. One case features five-term incumbents Sens. Jerry Tillman (R-Randolph) and Harris Blake (R-Moore), who have been drawn into the same Senate District 29. Will one chose to retire, or will we see a GOP incumbent vs. incumbent primary here? Longtime state lawmaker Sen. Debbie Clary (R-Cleveland) announced last month that she plans to leave the legislature later this year to begin a lobbying practice, and now we know one of the reasons. She and freshman Sen. Warren Daniel (R-Burke) were coupled in the same Senate District 46. Sen. Daniel may have avoided facing Clary in a primary, but a GOP successor will be appointed when Sen. Clary resigns, so we may still see an incumbent challenge here.

Perhaps to the surprise of some, there was only one district where two incumbent Democratic senators were drawn together. Sens. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) were double-bunked in Senate District 23, which now includes all of Chatham and Orange counties. Rumors have existed for years that Sen. Kinnaird may retire from the Senate, and the newly proposed district lines could prompt retirement or a Democratic incumbent primary battle in 2012.

Open Seat Districts

Five Senate districts are without an incumbent under the proposed plan and would be home to open seat races in 2012. The new Senate District 5 is a majority-minority district in Eastern North Carolina containing all of Greene County and portions of Wayne, Lenoir and Pitt counties. Former Sen. Don Davis (D-Greene) represented much of this area before be was defeated in 2010 by Sen. Louis Pate (R-Wayne), who resides in the new Senate District 7. In addition to having a majority of African-American residents, the new District 5 is heavily Democratic, and may make an appealing opportunity for Sen. Davis to stage a comeback. Another open seat district that leans in the Democrat's favor is District 22, which consists of Caswell and Person counties as well as significant portions of Durham County.

As alluded to earlier, Senate Districts 27 in Guilford County and District 32 in Forsyth County (currently represented by Sens. Don Vaughan and Linda Garrou, respectively) are open seats. District 27 appears to be much more friendly territory for the GOP, but past elections show that Democrats can be competitive here. District 32 is heavily Democratic and is split 50/50 between White and minority residents.

With substantial population growth, Mecklenburg County gained an additional Senate district, which takes the form of the new District 41. It is geographically anchored in the northern part of Mecklenburg County, but snakes south along the county's eastern border. This district looks as though Republicans would be strongly favored due to 39.2 percent GOP registration. Next year, however, will be an interesting political time for an open seat race in Mecklenburg County with President Obama targeting the state and the Democratic National Convention being held in Charlotte. Democratic enthusiasm could provide a boost to a 2012 Democratic candidate facing a non-incumbent Republican here. One thing is for sure, an open seat senate contest in the Charlotte/Mecklenburg media market means this race will be highly expensive.

GOP Class of 2010 Bolstered

Redistricting not only provides the opportunity to weaken political opponents, but it also allows the shoring up of potentially vulnerable allies. 2010 was an undeniably great year for North Carolina Republicans, especially in the state Senate, where they won virtually every competitive race. In making those gains, several current members of the Senate Republican caucus now occupy districts that were formerly held by Democrats and could swing back that way if left largely unaltered. Under the proposed map, several freshman Senate GOP members find themselves in much more friendly territory.

Sen. Louis Pate (R-Wayne) benefits from the creation of a new majority-minority District 5 that effectively removes many Democratic-leaning areas from the newly constructed District 7, in which he resides. Sen. Buck Newton (R-Nash) who upset former Sen. A.B. Swindell (D-Nash) in 2010, sees a significant reorientation of his district that gains him much more Republican territory. Similarly, Sen. Rick Gunn's (R-Alamance) new District 24 trades Caswell County for GOP-heavy areas in Randolph County. The district, which had been swing territory, now leans more favorably Republican. Senators Ralph Hise (R- Mitchell) and Dan Soucek (R-Watauga) have seen their districts trade whole counties, but both firmly lean to the GOP. With the swapping of a couple of Eastern North Carolina counties, Sen. Brent Jackson (R-Sampson) now has a much more Republican-friendly district than the one he won in 2010.

Two possible exceptions may be Sen. Wesley Meredith (R-Cumberland) who won former Sen. Tony Rand's old District 19 by beating Sen. Margaret Dickson (D-Cumberland) in 2010 after she was appointed to fill Rand's unexpired term. This District has a lower percentage of Democratic registration than before (47.4 percent versus 51.8 percent) but only gained a couple of percentage points in Republican registration (28.6 percent versus 26.0 percent). Sen. Jim Davis (R-Macon), who won the mountainous District 50 from former Sen. John Snow (D-Cherokee) in a very narrow victory, sees a slight gain in Democratic registration and a slight loss in Republican registration in the district. Regardless, both seats are expected remain competitive.

Other Endangered Incumbents

A handful of other Democratic senators not already mentioned above have become more endangered under the GOP-proposed redistricting plan. Sen. Stan White (D-Dare), who currently serves in the district held by long-time Senate President Pro Tempore Marc Basnight (D-Dare), has seen his district become slightly more Republican after the map trades Tyrrell and Washington counties for Perquimans and Gates counties. Unaffiliated voters in the new district also number well above the state average. Sen. Clark Jenkins (D-Edgecombe) has represented a majority-minority district for several years now and has had to fend off tough primary challenges from African-American candidates in the past. He is still in a heavily Democratic majority-minority district, but many voters in the geographically expanded, rural District 3 will be new to Sen. Jenkins. This could make future primary challenges even more difficult. Sen. Bill Purcell's (D-Scotland) District 25 along the South Carolina border has taken in some GOP-leaning areas of Rowan County. The district was a Democratic-leaning district, but these additional voters push Sen. Purcell's district into more swing territory. Finally, Sen. Doug Berger (D-Franklin) has seen a dramatic change from his current District 7, which used to consist of Franklin, Granville, Vance and Warren counties, to the new District 18, which pairs his home county of Franklin with significant portions of Wake County. Sen. Berger finds himself moved from a relatively safe Democratic district to viable Republican territory.

Potential Changes & House Map

The map described above is the first publicly released version of the Senate redistricting plan and describes the "Rucho Senate 1" map. Changes to the map may occur as the redistricting process moves forward. The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation is closely monitoring congressional and state legislative redistricting, and we will alert you to any and all modifications to the map proposals.

The proposed House redistricting map, "Lewis-Dollar-Dockham 1 ," was released yesterday evening, and we are in the process of analyzing that map, as well. Keep your eyes open for a forthcoming edition of About the Capital that will detail the House redistricting plan.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin and Jonathan Kappler contributed to this report.

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Redistricting Article Links

Proposed NC Senate districts have Republican tinge

State Senate maps out