N.C. Senate Partisan District Ratings Released

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

The redistricting picture in North Carolina got a lot clearer last Friday when a three-judge panel appointed by Chief Justice Sarah Parker ruled unanimously against a motion to delay the state's filing period and primary election. While the judges have yet to rule on any of the substantive portions of the lawsuit brought by Democrats and allied groups challenging the legality of the redistricting maps passed by the Republican-controlled General Assembly last July, the effect of last Friday's ruling is that the 2012 elections will take place as scheduled using the maps in question.

Politically this is a big win for the GOP, as the district plans favor returning Republican majorities to both chambers of the General Assembly. Even if the court finds the maps to be legally deficient in some way during future deliberations, practically, there is little that can be done to stop or alter the electoral calendar once the election process has begun. Responding to a request by the plaintiffs to delay the candidate filing period (February 13-29) and primary election date (May 8), Wake County Superior Court Judge Paul Ridgeway, the presiding judge in the case, recognized "...the proposed delay leaves little time for meaningful appellate review, curative measures of the General Assembly, preclearance of the curative measures by the U.S. Department of Justice, and review of this court of any further challenges to the curative measures, all of which would need to occur before the plaintiffs' proposed delayed filing date." Judge Ridgeway further stated, "... this unanimous decision of the court is based upon pragmatic considerations, including the recognition of the proximity of the forthcoming election cycle and the mechanics and complexities of state and federal election law."

With this in mind, we are continuing to roll out our preliminary Partisan District Ratings, which, this week, features the North Carolina Senate. As with our Congressional Partisan District Ratings released last week, we provide a summary chart noting each district's rating in addition to complementary demographic and political data in an easy-to-reference format, both of which can be found below.

The summary chart depicts how difficult it will be for Democrats to regain a majority in the N.C. Senate under these maps. There are 18 districts that Lean Democratic or are Strongly Democratic, compared to 27 districts that Lean Republican or are Strongly Republican. Five districts are categorized as Swing, and Republicans currently hold three of those seats. Of course, there are 50 seats in the Senate, and if Republicans are simply able to win the districts that favor their party, they would maintain a majority. Democrats have won Republican-leaning Senate seats in the past (though not under these maps), but those were often used to pad the Democratic majority and weren't critical to winning enough seats to control the chamber.

We've noted in the past that there are six open seats due to redistricting, and we learned this week of the retirement of two senators, Jean Preston (R-Craven) and Bill Purcell (D-Scotland). As a result, there are eight open seats in the N.C. Senate, to date. Democrats aren't likely to gain much help from these open seat contests as three are in Strong Democratic territory, and the seat being vacated by Sen. Purcell is a Swing district. The remaining four open districts all have pronounced Republican leanings. Regardless, as the Partisan District Ratings show, it's clear that the political playing field in the N.C. Senate favors Republicans.

As a reminder, to determine these ratings, the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation considers voter registration data, recent voter performance data, demographic and geographic information, historical voting trends, and other factors, though emphasis was given to recent voter performance data in statewide contests. Much of this data is represented in an easy-to-reference downloadable document (23 MB) that includes: the partisan registration of the district; the Partisan District Rating and rating meter; the gender, age and racial breakdown of the district; the district incumbent; the counties in the district; a district map; and the election percentages from the 2010 U.S. Senate race, 2008 presidential race, 2008 gubernatorial race, and 2008 U.S. Senate race.

(Please note: the districts in each category are listed in order of strength, with the strongest Democratic district listed in the top of the left column and the strongest Republican district listed in the bottom of the right column.)

Next week we plan to complete the release of the Partisan District Ratings by publishing the ratings for N.C. House.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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