North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation
North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation
Third Quarter Congressional Finances Lend Insight Into Campaign Formidability

There's not much to see in the Third Quarter campaign finance reports in the 1st District, literally. Only Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) has filed a report, but even if his opponents, Darryl Holloman (R) and Pete DiLauro (L), had filed reports, they wouldn't be very illuminating. This district is overwhelmingly Democratic and Rep Butterfield has posted solid campaign finance figures throughout this campaign, leaving his re-election in little doubt.
U.S. House District 2
After winning an upset victory in 2010, Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) has typically posted decent fundraising totals and maintained modest cash on hand sums. She took in almost $158,000 in the Third Quarter and had just over $204,000 on hand. Under different circumstances, this could put her in danger in her first re-election contest, but she appears safe for a second term. The 2nd District was changed to become much more Republican following redistricting in 2011, and her Democratic opponent, Steve Wilkins, is underfunded, pulling in just under $42,000 in the Third Quarter with less than $23,000 in the bank at the end of September. Libertarian candidate Brian Irving has yet to file a report.
U.S. House District 3
Rep. Walter Jones (R) has never been a stellar fundraiser, and that trend continues in the Third Quarter. He raised just over $79,000, and had almost $107,000 on hand. While his opponent, Erik Anderson (D), has yet to report his Third Quarter campaign finances, they are likely to be underwhelming. At the end of the 2nd Quarter, Anderson had less than $38 in the bank. Rep. Jones probably faced more danger in the primary, which he handily won, than he does in the General Election.
U.S. House District 4
If you just looked at the campaign finance figures from the Third Quarter, you would be forgiven for thinking Rep. David Price (D) is vulnerable to Tim D'Annunzio (R). Rep. Price raised just over $181,000, spent $213,000, leaving him with $147,000 in cash on hand at the end of September. D'Annunzio had $357,000 in total receipts, spent almost $400,000 and had $50,000 on hand. However, the new 4th District is very strongly Democratic, and D'Annunzio is essentially self-financing his entire campaign. Despite loaning his campaign a total of $582,340, it's unlikely that he will come close to giving Rep. Price a serious challenge based on the overall demographics of the district.
U.S. House District 5
Despite the 5th District becoming a little less Republican through redistricting, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) is likely safe for another term, thanks in part to her huge campaign bank account. While Rep. Foxx raised a relatively ordinary amount in the Third Quarter, $147,000, she is typically frugal with campaign expenses (her campaign only spent $90,000 in the last quarter), and has now amassed a campaign war chest of $1.58 million. Her opponent's campaign finances are meager in comparison. Elisabeth Motsinger (D) took in just under $44,000, spent under $40,000, which left her with almost $24,000.
U.S. House District 6
The fundraising from both candidates in the 6th District reflect the level of competitiveness of this contest. Rep. Howard Coble (R) raised less than $89,000, spent only $62,000, and had $127,000 on hand. As modest as these figures are, they are many times larger than former state Sen. Tony Foriest's (D) Third Quarter numbers. He raised just $16,000, spent less than $8,000, and had just $27,000 on hand. Rep. Coble is strongly favored for a 15th term.
U.S. House District 7
The 7th District is without a doubt the marquee congressional race in North Carolina this year. A few weeks ago, Politico named it one of the top five most expensive congressional races in the country, and the amount of money being spent here only continues to rise. That is only due in part to the amount of money being expended by the candidates themselves, as outside groups are investing heavily in this race. In terms of how the candidates performed in the Third Quarter, Rep. McIntyre (D) continues to have an edge. In the most recent reporting period, he raised $441,000, spent a whopping $924,000, and still had $593,000 in cash on hand. State Sen. David Rouzer (R) didn't have a bad fundraising quarter, taking in $358,000, but spent less than half of what his opponent did - $438,000 - and was left with less than $92,000 in the bank.
Outside groups, however, are making up the difference for Rouzer. Three groups have spent a total of $3.2 million so far on Rouzer's behalf, primarily on TV ads attacking Rep. McIntyre. Meanwhile, three different outside groups have come to aid of Rep. McIntyre, spending a combined $1.6 million to bolster his campaign and to attack Rouzer. Most of this spending has taken place during the Third Quarter. While this outside money typically doesn't buy as much media as the dollars spent by the candidates themselves, since federal candidates get discounted media rates, it has been crucial help to Rouzer. The conservative outside groups have focused heavily on running ads in the Raleigh media market, which is new to the 7th District and is Rouzer's political home base. The Rouzer campaign has spent most of its ad money in the Wilmington area, where Rep. McIntyre is a well-established political figure. Without this outside help, Rouzer would be in danger of being financially outgunned by Rep. McIntyre. As it stands, this race is likely to go down to the wire.
U.S. House District 8
While the 8th District features a tough battle between Rep. Larry Kissell (D) and former congressional aide Richard Hudson (R), this race has dropped off the national political radar to some extent, as national Democrats canceled ad buys on behalf of Rep. Kissell. Regardless, both candidates have been raising and spending significant sums, and GOP and conservative groups have invested large amounts here as well. Hudson actually outraised and outspent the incumbent in the Third Quarter, but had less money in the bank at the end of the period. Hudson raised $513,000, spent $332,000, and had $355,000 on hand at the end of September. Rep. Kissell took in $223,000, spent $271,000, but ended the period with $561,000 in the bank. Kissell's account balance advantage, however, has been dwarfed by the amount that has already been spent by outside groups in this race. Republican and conservative groups have poured a total of $1.9 million into the race to help Hudson's campaign and attack Rep. Kissell. While Rep. Kissell has been campaigning hard, it looks as though he will be outspent by his opponent and outside groups.
U.S. House District 9
When incumbent Rep. Sue Myrick (R) announced her intention to retire from the U.S. House back in January, it touched off a crowded and competitive Republican primary that took a runoff to decide. Former state Sen. Robert Pittenger (R) ultimately won that contest, thanks in part to vastly outspending his opponents, due largely to an infusion of personal cash into his campaign. Based on the Third Quarter campaign finance reports, that trend has continued into the General Election where Pittenger faces Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jennifer Roberts (D). Pittenger reported taking in $730,000 in total receipts in the Third Quarter, spending $574,000, and having $247,000 in the bank at the end of September. As in previous reporting periods, a substantial amount of his receipts came from his own pocket, this time in the form of a $305,000 loan to his campaign. At the same time, Roberts raised $195,000 and spent $285,000, leaving her with just $69,000 in the bank at the end of the reporting period. Overall Pittenger has reported a total of over $3 million in receipts to his campaign, over $2.2 million of which has come from personal contributions and loans from the candidate himself. This district leans Republican, and, coupled with Pittenger's overwhelming financial advantage, it's hard to imagine a path to victory for any Democrat here.
U.S. House District 10
Despite an active campaign from state Rep. Patsy Keever (D), incumbent Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) has an edge in this district, financially and politically. Keever actually outraised McHenry during the Third Quarter, but that was thanks to a $100,000 personal loan to her campaign. In the last period, Keever raised $257,000, spent $116,000, leaving her with $169,000 in the bank. Rep. McHenry took in $190,000, spent $149,000, and ended the period with $337,000 in cash on hand. While Keever is certainly pressing Rep. McHenry at every turn in this campaign, she would likely need to outspend the incumbent to seriously endanger his re-election, and that does not appear to be happening.
U.S. House District 11
The 11th District became the most Republican congressional district in the state following redistricting in 2011, based on presidential voting in 2008. Despite that, Hayden Rogers (D), former congressional Chief of Staff to Democratic incumbent Rep. Heath Shuler, is waging a competitive campaign against Republican Mark Meadows. In the Third Quarter, Meadows was superior financially, which, combined with the district's GOP-favorable demographics, makes it nearly impossible for a Democrat to win here. Rogers took in $198,000 in the Third Quarter, spent $181,000, and had $209,000 in the bank at the end of September. Meadows more than doubled Rogers' fundraising, reporting $436,000 in receipts, $267,000 in expenditures, and a balance of $203,000 heading into the remaining weeks of the campaign.
U.S. House District 12
Rep. Mel Watt (D) is running for an a 11th term in an overwhelmingly Democratic district. Because he has never faced a serious General Election challenge, Watt has never been forced to become a formidable fundraiser, but he continues to post solid numbers. In the most recent quarter, he raised $198,000, spent $299,000, and had $311,000 in cash on hand. His opponent, Republican Jack Brosch, hasn't reported any campaign finance figures recently and had not been particularly active on the campaign trail.
U.S. House District 13
Former US Attorney George Holding (R) continues to raise and spend large sums in advance of the General Election, despite facing an opponent, Charles Malone (D), who has raised paltry amounts and waged a less than robust campaign effort. In the Third Quarter, Holding raised $429,000 and spent $371,000, leaving him with just $75,000 on hand. Malone raised only $10,000, spent just $8,000, and had $4,000 in the bank. National political pundits have essentially declared Holding the winner already, and these campaign finance numbers support that assertion.
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NCFEF staff John Rustin and Jonathan Kappler contributed to this report.
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October 18, 2012
“About the Capital”