NCFEF SPECIAL REPORT - Most Competitive Races of 2012: N.C. Senate

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

With North Carolina's primary elections behind us-except for a handful of runoffs on July 17-and just over five months until the November 6 General Election, the 2012 campaign season is in full swing and will heat up more and more as we enter the sizzling summer months. The Tar Heel State is in the national political spotlight like never before, due to highly competitive and consequential presidential, congressional and gubernatorial contests. New congressional and state legislative district maps drawn by the Republican-led state legislature have set the stage for a major political battleground, and the continued growth of unaffiliated voters in the state (one-in-four registered voters) makes many of these district elections highly unpredictable. In addition, the retirement, resignation or defeat of a significant number of incumbent state lawmakers, (11 in the 50-member State Senate and 37 in the 120-member State House, so far) will again result in tremendous turnover in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly, as we saw in 2010.

In contests for state legislative seats, electoral combat isn't just between the individual candidates. Strategic efforts from the two major political parties coupled with increasingly well-funded outside groups engaged in electioneering communications and independent expenditure efforts, will also factor heavily in the outcomes of important races.

Although it is still relatively early in the General Election cycle and much could change before voters go to the polls in November, this is an opportune time to take an initial look into how North Carolina's most competitive State Senate races are shaping up. Based on the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation's analysis of the districts and candidates, we discuss in this special report what we believe are likely to be the "10 Most Competitive State Senate Races of 2012." (To download the report in its entirety click on the image.)

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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