2012 2nd Quarter Congressional Campaign Finances

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Despite very low turnout in Tuesday's second primary runoff election in North Carolina, the results were no less important and in some cases decisive. Now that we have an established slate of candidates for the November 6 General Election, the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is examining the latest campaign finance reports to help shed light on the financial resources candidates have at their disposal moving into the heart of the campaign season. We will begin this week looking at congressional contests and follow in the coming days with data and analysis on statewide and legislative races.

Second quarter campaign finance reports recently filed with the Federal Election Commission offer important information on the strength of various campaigns. In addition, as we've noted in the past, at least two of North Carolina's congressional districts are already attracting attention and money from the national parties and outside groups. We've highlighted three districts below, and the latest campaign finance information for all congressional candidates in the General Election can be found in the following document, which you can download by clicking on the image.

7th Congressional District:

Incumbent Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-Robeson) has always represented a swath of North Carolina that was more conservative than progressive, but under the district lines drawn by GOP lawmakers last year, the new iteration of the 7th Congressional District is even more conservative and more Republican than it has been in recent history. Although he successfully won a close race in 2010 during a challenging election year for Democrats, Rep. McIntyre entered 2012 in a more vulnerable position based on the demographics of the new district. Judging by both his most recent campaign finance report, as well as his cumulative fundraising, the incumbent congressman seems well aware of the danger he faces.

At the end of June, Rep. McIntyre reported over $1 million in his campaign account after raising more than $385,000 and spending close to $75,000 during the Second Quarter. That far outpaces his Republican opponent, current state Sen. David Rouzer (R-Johnston), who reported only $171,608 in the bank as of June 30 - that represents only 16 percent of Rep. McIntyre's total. Of course, Sen. Rouzer recently emerged from a hotly contested GOP primary against 2010 7th District GOP nominee Ilario Pantano, which heavily taxed his campaign coffers. Rouzer spent nearly $190,000 after raising $272,000 during the reporting period.

It's worth noting that Rep. McIntyre's has considerably improved his overall financial footing compared to the same period two years ago - he has doubled overall fundraising compared to this point in 2010 and held on to more campaign cash than he had at this time in the last election cycle. Conversely, Sen. Rouzer is in a better financial position this year than Ilario Pantano was in 2010, and Rouzer has proven to be a solid fundraiser thus far. Of course, one outside group could effectively even the campaign finance playing field here overnight by dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race. It seems more likely, however, that a number of outside groups will choose to engage in independent expenditure and/or electioneering communication efforts in this district and that no one entity will decisively dominate the political landscape.

8th Congressional District:

Rep. Larry Kissell (D-Montgomery) is among the most vulnerable congressional incumbents in the country, according to the Washington Post & National Journal, which both ranked this district in the top 10 most likely to switch parties in 2012. Rep. Kissell has never been a stellar fundraiser, but he is sitting in a stronger campaign finance position than he ever has been with over $600,000 in the bank at the end of June. This reporting period, he posted another solid quarter, especially considering his past performance. Overall, his fundraising is more than $200,000 ahead of where he was in 2010, with more than $300,000 more in the bank than he had at the same point in 2010. The bottom line is he's raised more, spent less, and has more on hand than at this point in the last election.

In 2010, Rep. Kissell benefitted from a Republican runoff to determine the candidate he would face the General Election, which left the eventual 2010 GOP nominee, Harold Johnson, with little in the bank after the second primary. Rep. Kissell may experience similar good fortune again this year, as the Republican nominee was only decided after an even later July 17 runoff. Ultimate GOP second primary winner Richard Hudson reported $174,000 in the bank on June 27, but spent over $300,000 in the second quarter after raising $238,000. Hudson's cash balance was likely depleted even further in the two weeks leading up to the runoff. Outside groups are also likely to play heavily in this district in the General Election, and at least three groups have already invested serious money to help Hudson.

11th Congressional District:

The 11th Congressional District, which incumbent Rep. Heath Shuler (D-Haywood) is vacating, is now the most Republican congressional district in the state, due to redistricting. The new demographics of the district and the fact that it is an open seat race have left many national analysts to conclude that a GOP pick-up here is a near certainty. While the Democratic nominee, former Shuler Chief of Staff Hayden Rogers (D-Cherokee), is about as good a replacement candidate as there is, the mere fact that he's not Heath Shuler puts him at a big electoral disadvantage.

Nonetheless, this race is worth mentioning in the context of the campaign finance picture. Newly minted GOP nominee, Mark Meadows (R-Macon), who overwhelmingly won a runoff against fellow Republican Vance Patterson (R-Burke), is starting the General Election campaign behind financially. In his latest campaign finance reports, Meadows reported less than $34,000 in the bank and carried a debt of over $250,000, largely due to personal loans made to his campaign. Meanwhile, Rogers has had solid fundraising in the relatively short time he's been in the race (Rep. Shuler didn't announce his retirement until shortly before the filing period opened in February). With just under $200,000 on hand at the end of June, Rogers raised over $175,000 during the second quarter but spent $230,000. Overall, the demographics of this district make it a very tough race for Rogers, but Meadows is going to have to reload his campaign war chest and not take this race for granted if he wants to be successful in the fall.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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