North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Known Winners and the Role of Geography in Key Races

Thu, 17 May 2012 09:56:54 -0400

The State Board of Elections is still in the process of finalizing the results from last week's Primary Election, but when it does, the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation will provide you with an updated version of the election results & campaign finance report we provided at our May 9 Post-Primary Briefing. We'll also be digging into more detailed data from the official election results to further flesh out what happened on May 8 and look for insights into what may take place this fall. Meanwhile, we have provided a listing below of candidates who have already won seats in the General Assembly in 2013 as well as an analysis of the role geography played in a number of key primary contests this year.

KNOWN N.C. GENERAL ASSEMBLY WINNERS
As a result of the primary election, we now know who dozens of members of the N.C. General Assembly will be when the legislature convenes in January 2013. This is because 65 seats in the state Senate and House are uncontested in the General Election. In fact, the winners of 16 Senate and 46 House seats are already known, and three more will be decided after runoff elections in mid-July. Below is a listing of returning incumbents and legislative newcomers. In addition, we have also updated our Partisan District Ratings charts of the Senate and House to reflect the primary election winners, as well as our 2012 Turnover Tracker which notes the 10 incumbent state Senators and 37 incumbent state House members we know will not be returning to the General Assembly next year.

Known NC Senate Winners
Democrats: Incumbents Dan Blue, Clark Jenkins, Floyd McKissick, Gladys Robinson, Josh Stein and non-incumbents former Sen. Don Davis and the winner of the runoff in Senate District 21 between Billy King and Robert Clark III.

Republicans: Incumbents Tom Apodaca, Stan Bingham, Andrew Brock, Harry Brown, Kathy Harrington, Fletcher Hartsell, Brent Jackson, Louis Pate, Jerry Tillman, Tommy Tucker, and the non-incumbent winner of the runoff in Senate District 41 between John Aneralla and Jeff Tarte.

Known NC House Winners
Democrats: Incumbents Larry Bell, Marcus Brandon, William Brisson, Angela Bryant, Beverly Earle, Jean Farmer-Butterfield, Susan Fisher, Rosa Gill, Ken Goodman, Charles Graham, Larry Hall, Darren Jackson, Paul Luebke, Mickey Michaux, Annie Mobley, Rodney Moore, Garland Pierce, Deborah Ross, Joe Tolson, and non-incumbents Carla Cunningham, Duane Hall, and Yvonne Lewis Holley.

Republicans: Incumbents Jamie Boles, Bill Brawley, Rayne Brown, George Cleveland, Pat Hurley, J.H. Langdon, Chuck McGrady, Tim Moore, Larry Pittman, Jason Saine, Ruth Samuelson, Mitchell Setzer, Phil Shepard, Edgar Starnes, Sarah Stevens, John Torbett, Roger West, and non-incumbents Dean Arp, Robert Brawley, Jeffrey Elmore, Jon Hardister, Donny Lambeth, Chris Millis, Jacqueline Schaffer, and the winner of the runoff in House District 109 between Dana Bumgardner and Wil Neumann.

GEOGRAPHY AS A FACTOR
Geography often plays a major role in political contests, and we have highlighted several races below that demonstrate how geography factored into some of the most competitive and consequential primaries across the state.

Coastal vs. Inland Divide: In the closely watched 7th Congressional GOP primary between State Senator David Rouzer (R-Johnson) and Ilario Pantano (R-New Hanover), the role of geography was considered a key factor. This newly drawn district spans from Johnston County to New Hanover County and incorporates all, or portions of, 10 counties in between. Rouzer resides in Johnson County in the northern most portion of the district, while Pantano lives in Wilmington along the coast. Over 40 percent of the voters in this district reside in New Hanover and neighboring Brunswick County, while only 21.4 percent live in Johnston Co., posing a challenge for Rouzer in the primary. Clearly, he recognized this and crafted a primary campaign strategy that often used coastal scenes as a backdrop in his campaign ads in order to reach out to voters in coastal regions of the district, Pantano's home base. Overall, Rouzer eked out a narrow four-percentage point victory, besting Pantano by 2,895 votes and relying heavily on Johnston County, which he won by 12,291 votes. Pantano, on the other hand, won eight of the district's 12 counties, most of which are in the old configuration of the 7th Congressional District where he competed during the 2010 election cycle.

While there are indications establishment Republicans favored Sen. Rouzer because they believe he is better equipped to take on long-time incumbent Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre (D-Robeson) in the fall, these same geographical issues may arise in the lead up to the General Election. Throughout his 15 years in Congress, Rep. McIntyre, who resides in Lumberton, has paid close attention to conservative coastal voters and has drawn support from Republicans and Democrats alike. This year, however, due to the redrawing of congressional district maps, McIntyre actually lives just outside of the boundary lines of District 7. Although candidates for U.S. Congress in North Carolina do not have to live within the district in which they are running, this geographical tidbit could be raised as an issue in this highly competitive contest.

County Lines: Another marquee race was the Democratic primary in NC House District 2, featuring incumbent Democratic Reps. Winkie Wilkins (D-Person) and Jim Crawford (D-Granville). Rep. Wilkins scored a big win here, taking in 55.7 percent of the vote, to Rep. Crawford's 36.9 percent. Jason Jenkins (D-Granville), a third candidate, won 7.4 percent. At first glance, it appears that Rep. Wilkins may have won because his home county of Person turned out at a greater rate than Rep. Crawford's Granville County, and that a third primary candidate from Granville County captured votes that otherwise might have gone to Rep. Crawford. While both of these factors may be true, they do not tell the whole story.

House District 2 is closely divided between Person and Granville counties with 54 percent of Democratic voters residing in Person and the remaining 46 percent in Granville. Unaffiliated voters (who can also vote in the primary) are similarly divided. In the primary, 6,016 ballots were cast in Person Co. (56 percent of all ballots cast) compared to 4,752 ballots in Granville Co. (44 percent of all ballots cast), showing that Person Co. only slightly outperformed its relative share of the Democratic voting population. In addition, if all of Jenkins' votes went to Crawford, Crawford would still come up over 10 points short of Wilkins. Perhaps a more significant reason Rep. Wilkins won by such a large margin, was that his Person Co. base was much more unified behind his candidacy than the Granville Co. base was behind Rep. Crawford. Rep. Wilkins won almost 75 percent of the votes cast in Person County, while Rep. Crawford won only 57 percent of the votes cast in Granville County. The combination of (1) Person County representing a slightly larger share of the district, (2) the county over-performing by a small margin, and (3) Rep. Wilkins' ability to effectively unify and motivate his base, provides a more complete picture of Rep. Wilkins' victory and how county lines played a role here. Undoubtedly, outside expenditures in opposition to Crawford from groups like Common Sense Matters, which is tied to the National Education Association (NEA) and N.C. Advocates for Justice (trial lawyers), had an impact here as well.

Urban Communities as a Political Launching Pad: As we've noted in past, North Carolina's growing and shifting population toward urban areas is concentrating more political clout in the metropolitan centers of the state. Not only are regions like Charlotte/Mecklenburg, the Triad and the Triangle gaining seats and relative representation in the state legislature, but if 2012 is any indication, more of our statewide officeholders are likely to hail from these areas. This year, we saw a number of competitive and crowded statewide primaries, and candidates from urban areas of the state were largely successful in these races. In fact, 12 of the 19 candidates who secured their party's nomination or made it into a runoff for Governor or a Council of State seat live in either Guilford, Mecklenburg or Wake counties - nine are from Wake County. Some candidates, like Auditor candidate Debra Goldman (R-Wake), Lt. Governor candidates Linda Coleman (D-Wake) and Dan Forest (R-Wake), as well as Secretary of State candidate Kenn Gardner (R-Wake) leveraged their base in the Triangle to build a broader coalition of support from diverse regions across the state.

Other statewide candidates from Wake County seemed to focus on shoring up support in their populous home region as a way to be competitive in a crowded statewide field. Tony Gurley (R-Wake) and John Tedesco (R-Wake) in particular seemed to rely on this strategy in their respective GOP contests for Lt. Governor and Superintendent of Public Instruction. The images to the right illustrate this point. The light blue indicates counties won by Tony Gurley (R-Wake) and John Tedesco (R-Wake) in their primary contests. Neither won many counties outside of those in the Triangle media market, but both earned a spot in a runoff election. It's not unusual for candidates to rely on their home region for support, but as the state's metropolitan areas (especially the Triangle and Charlotte metro regions) continue to grow, North Carolina may see more of it's statewide office-holders coming from these areas. Of course, simply being from a populated area and having a base of support there, isn't enough to win competitive races, and many factors influence election outcomes. For example, former Congressman Bob Etheridge (D-Harnett) largely won the Triangle-area in his run for Governor, after having served many of those communities in Congress since the mid-1990's. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (D-Rutherford), however, won nearly every other county and region on his way to a statewide win.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
Romney to stump in Charlotte
Michelle Obama speaks at NC A&T graduation
Poll: Romney leads Obama in NC
Poll: Obama leads Romney in NC
SuperPAC to air $1 million in anti-Obama ads
Top Obama aides in Raleigh this week

U.S. House
GOPers poised to gain congressional seats
Rouzer attacks McIntyre in 7th District
Opponents endorse Keadle for runoff
Hudson no longer questions Obama's birth
Keadle regrets comments on Obama's birth

Statewide
Governor
Governor's race expected to draw big money
RGA zeroes in on North Carolina
Perdue puts Dem Party mess at Dalton's feet
Dalton challenges McCrory to debates
Dalton, McCrory start jabbing in Gov race
RGA spends big money to attack Dalton
Poll: McCrory lead down to 6
Republican Governors begin attack on Dalton
GOP ad attacking Dalton distorts truth
Virginia governor to stump for McCrory
Poll: McCrory leads Dalton

NC Council of State
Shubert endorses Dority in GOP auditor race
Foster seeks runoff for Labor commissioner

State Legislative Races
The need for speed will shape NCGA session
NCGA return to consider controversial issues

N.C. Senate
Carney turns focus to run-off
Ray throws support to Curtis in Senate 44 race
Apodaca returned to Senate
Ex-Sen. Shaw in 3rd place by 4 votes
Ex-candidates back Tarte for Senate 41 runoff

N.C. House
Incumbent Pittman wins in District 82 race
Planned Parenthood takes credit for Crawford
Brandon coasts, Wade prevails

Other Political News
Baldwin seeking Dem Party Chairmanship
Some Dems want to keep Chairman Parker
It's official: Primary runoff date is July 17
Forsyth politico running for Dem Party Chair
NC party chair submits resignation, then stays
Parker out, then he's in
Why Dem activists want Parker: money
Religion has long held sway in NC politics
Democrats fret about Parker's defiance

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2012 Primary Election Results

Thu, 10 May 2012 12:09:02 -0400

The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation held a standing-room-only Post-Primary Election briefing yesterday at the offices of the N.C. Farm Bureau in Raleigh. At this packed-house event, we reviewed the results of Tuesday's Primary contests for federal and state-level elected offices in North Carolina. You may download a copy of the 2012 Primary Election Results handout provided at the briefing by clicking on the image below. The handout includes the primary election results in races for U.S. House, Governor & Council of State offices, N.C. Senate and N.C. House; notes the contests in which runoff elections are likely; and contains candidate campaign finance data through the First Quarter of 2012.

In the coming weeks, the NCFEF will be analyzing and unpacking the Primary Election results in order to understand the implications for North Carolina's fall General Election. Here are a few highlights:

๏ Voter Turnout is expected to reach close to 35 percent after absentee mail-in ballots are fully counted. While voters turned out in record numbers (2,164,891 out of 6,296,759 registered voters) due to the state's population growth, the overall turnout percentage fell short of the 37 percent turnout in 2008, when a highly competitive Democratic presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton brought voters to the polls.

๏ The Marriage Amendment on the ballot was a major factor in voter turnout, as the measure passed 61 to 39 percent. Interestingly, 200,000 more votes were cast on the Marriage Amendment than in the presidential primary races, and 300,000 more votes were cast on the amendment than in the gubernatorial primary contests.

๏ At the top of the ticket, there were no big surprises. In the presidential race, BarackObama received 79.2 percent of his party's vote, while 20.8 percent of Democratic voters selected "No Preference." Expected GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney captured 65.7 percent of the Republican vote, while Ron Paul came in second with 11.1 percent. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, both of whom have suspended their campaigns, received 10.4 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively. In the race for Governor, Democrat Walter Dalton walked away with his party's nomination with 45.9 percent of the vote, besting second place finisher Bob Etheridge by nearly eight points. On the Republican side of the ticket, Pat McCrory easily dispatched his primary rivals taking 83.5 percent of the vote, while none of the other 5 contestants mustered more than 5.3 percent. The office of Lieutenant Governor was hotly contested by both parties with Linda Coleman defeating Eric Mansfield 56.1 percent to 43.9 percent on the Democratic ticket. A five-way race in the Republican contest yielded a close finish by three candidates: Dan Forest, Tony Gurley and Dale Folwell. Forest and Gurley are expected to face each other in a runoff election.

๏ Incumbent Defeats in primary elections are not common, but there were a handful this year. In three instances, incumbent members of the same party who were "double-bunked" (drawn into the same district lines) during redistricting faced off in the primary. Democrat Rep. Winkie Wilkins (D-Person) defeated fellow incumbent Rep. Jim Crawford (D-Granville) in House District 2, while Republican Rep. Jimmy Dixon (R-Duplin) won against House colleague Rep. Efton Sager (R-Wayne) in House District 4, and GOP Rep. Mark Hollo (R-Alexander) defeated Rep. Darrell McCormick (R-Yadkin) in House District 73, although McCormick had essentially withdrawn from the race. In addition, three other incumbent lawmakers were defeated by non-incumbent challengers: Rep. Stephen LaRoque (R-Lenoir) appears to have been edged out by GOP challenger John Bell (R-Wayne) in House District 10 but may seek a recount; Rep. Larry Brown (R-Forsyth) lost to challenger Debra Conrad (R-Forsyth) in a three-way primary in House District 74; and Rep. Trudi Walend (R-Transylvania) was narrowly edged out by challenger Chris Whitmire (R-Transylvania) in House District 113. Finally, Sen. Charlie Dannelly (D-Mecklenburg) filed but then decided not to seek re-election and placed his support behind Senate District 38 Democratic primary winner Joel Ford (D-Mecklenburg).

๏ Runoff Elections, scheduled for July 17, are expected in at least 16 races where the top vote getter did not capture the necessary 40 percent plus one vote needed to win the election outright:
๏ U.S. House 8 (GOP) between Richard Hudson & Scott Keadle;
๏ U.S. House 9 (GOP) between Robert Pittenger & Jim Pendergraph;
๏ U.S. House 11 (GOP) between Mark Meadows & Vance Patterson;
๏ Lieutenant Governor (GOP) between Dan Forest & Tony Gurley;
๏ Secretary of State (GOP) between Ed Goodwin & Kenn Gardner;
๏ State Auditor (GOP) between Debra Goldman & Greg Dority;
๏ Superintendent of Public Instruction (GOP) between John Tedesco and Richard Alexander;
๏ Insurance Commissioner (GOP) between Richard Morgan & Mike Causey;
๏ Labor Commissioner (DEM) between John Brooks & Marlowe Foster;
๏ NC Senate 12 (GOP) between Don Davis & Ronald Rabin;
๏ NC Senate 21 (DEM) between Billy King & Robert Clark (former NC Senator Larry Shaw trails second place finisher Clark by just 14 votes, so the counting of absentee and provisional ballots could change the outcome here);
๏ NC Senate 41 (GOP) between Jeff Tarte & John Aneralla;
๏ NC Senate 44 (GOP) between Rep. Chris Carney & David Curtis;
๏ NC House 6 (GOP) between Mattie Lawson & Arthur Williams;
๏ NC House 32 (DEM) between Nathan Baskerville & Jim Crawford, III;
๏ NC House 109 (GOP) between Dana Bumgardner & Wil Neuman.

Thank you for your interest and participation in the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation. Please contact us anytime we can be of assistance.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
U.S. House
District 3
Jones beats Palombo
District 5
NC-05: Motsinger wins
District 7
Rouzer beats Pantano in GOP primary
Rouzer hopes to do well with donors
District 8
Rep. Kissell's November challenger unknown
Vernon Robinson loses congressional bid
Two 8th District losers endorse Scott Keadle
District 9
Runoff looms for Pittenger, Pendergraph
District 10
Keever gets big win over Bellamy in NC-10
McHenry wins in landslide
District 11
Rogers wins Demo nomination in 11th District
Meadows, Patterson to face run-off election
District 13
Holding defeats Coble in GOP primary
Dem wanted off ballot, now considering fall run

Statewide
Governor
Dalton defeats Etheridge to face McCrory
Dalton talks about taking on McCrory
Dalton takes jab at McCrory on home turf

NC Council of State
GOP Wake school board members advance
Gardner, Goodwin likely to face off in runoff
Coleman wins; GOP nominee uncertain
Folwell's bid falls short in Lt. Governor race
Treasurer, agriculture commissioner win
Labor, insurance races headed for runoff

State Legislative Races
NCGA primary casualties
Mecklenburg NCGA primary results
Durham area primary winners

N.C. Senate
NC Senate 32: Rep. Parmon wins
NC Senate runoff for Tarte and Aneralla
Button to face Glazier for District 44
Bingham edges Gallimore in Senate primary

N.C. House
NC House 79: Rep. Howard defeats challenger
Hastings bounds past Burris-Floyd
Bumgardner wins, but can't avoid runoff
Whitmire edges Walend in close race
72nd District: Hanes tops rivals, avoids runoff
Cates wins Dem nomination for NC House 86
LaRoque seeks recount

Other Political News
NC to add amendment to its constitution
2012 turnout didn't exceed 2008 primary
Runoff will settle more than a dozen contests

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Last Minute Primary Miscellany

Thu, 3 May 2012 14:26:25 -0400

We are just days away from the 2012 Primary Election, and at this point, campaigns and political dynamics are developing and changing rapidly. The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation had hoped to provide you with a comprehensive preliminary analysis of First Quarter campaign finance reports this week, however, Monday's reporting deadline and a glut of candidates has caused a significant backlog at the State Board of Elections. As a result, we simply do not have access to many of those reports yet, and that's assuming all the reports have been filed completely and on time. Nonetheless, NCFEF Research Director Jonathan Kappler has been doing a great job providing sneak peeks into the campaign finances of candidates in key competitive races via Twitter at @NCFEF and @jonathankappler. You don't have to have a Twitter account to view these postings, simply click on the links to take a look (you may have to scroll down for more campaign finance information).

(For a full review of the Primary Election results and campaign finance data, be sure to register and attend the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation's Post-Primary Election Briefing from 2:00 - 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday, May 9 at the NC Farm Bureau Federation Annex in Raleigh. There is no fee to attend this event, but registration is required.)

Polling Data
In addition to the campaign finance reports currently being processed by the State Board of Elections, the latest polling data for statewide contests helps give some insight into where races stand and how formidable various candidates are. In the tables to the right, we have provided a compilation of recent public polls showing how both parties' statewide primaries stack up. The Civitas/SurveyUSA poll was conducted April 20-23, the Public Policy Polling poll ( Democratic poll, GOP poll) ran from April 27-29, and the WRAL/SurveyUSA poll was in the field from April 26-30. Note that it looks likely that we are headed to runoff elections in several statewide contests, especially in Republican races, barring any dramatic late developments.

Outside Spending
While the latest polls help to provide an indication of voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, spending by outside groups through Independent Expenditures and Electioneering Communications can have a substantial impact on voters heading into the closing days of an election. Based on the latest Independent Expenditure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, over $966,000 has been spent by outside groups to influence the outcomes of three Republican congressional primaries in North Carolina. In U.S. House District 8, two groups have spent nearly $350,000 to aid the campaign of Republican Scott Keadle, including conservative powerhouse, Club for Growth. However, the YG Action Fund, which is a Super PAC with strong ties to U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), has spent over $75,000 so far to support the candidacy of Republican Richard Hudson in the same district. By far the largest expenditures have come from a Super PAC formed to support former U.S. Attorney and Republican candidate George Holding in the 13th Congressional District. The American Foundations Committee has spent $535,000 since the beginning of March to support Holding's campaign by running pro-Holding TV ads and ads attacking his main opponent, fellow Republican and Wake County Commission Chair Paul Coble. Holding already had a sizable financial advantage over Paul Coble, and these outside funds make the gap even larger. See the table to the left for additional information on these independent expenditures.

The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation will continue to keep tabs on important races throughout the closing days of the primary campaign.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
Welcome to a presidential battleground state
Romney names Alabaman to direct NC effort
Romney Super PAC to begin airing ads in NC

U.S. House
District 1
Newcomer challenges Butterfield
District 2
Ellmers a DC star, but rankles some at home
Ellmers walks fine line on marriage stance
District 3
Rep. Jones facing tough challenge
District 7
Rouzer's new TV ad jabs Pantano
3 GOPers face off in bid to take 7th District
District 8
Club for Growth becomes Club for Keadle
In overshadowed race, Steen goes local
District 9
Pittenger gives his campaign $1.1 million
District 10
3 Democrats vie for House nomination
District 11
Meadows picks up Jeff Duncan endorsement
Patterson's ad might be out-of-bounds
Bothwell blasts Rogers in NC-11
District 13
Holding, Coble limit the mud in debate

Statewide
Governor
Etheridge to report $310k in contributions
Etheridge aligns himself with President Obama
Rep. Price, Sen. Blue to endorse Etheridge
Dalton begins new TV ad
5 McCrory donors referred to DA
Dalton campaigns in Hendersonville
Dalton outraising Etheridge by 4-1 margin
Poll: Dalton's momentum continues
Governor candidates tout money, supporters
McCrory boasts big funding lead in Gov race
Dalton takes big lead in primary battle
Poll points to McCrory, Dalton race for Gov
Faison ends up spending modest amount
How Faison made his $500k loan disappear

NC Council of State
Coleman attacks Mansfield's record in mailer
Mansfield responds to attacks with smiles
5 GOPers compete in superintendent primary
Republican Lt. Gov candidates talk big issues
Mansfield launches TV ad campaign
Cowell faces primary challenger
Late to TV game, Forest keeps it simple
Wright wants opponent to quit auditor race
Quiet GOP campaign for Lt. Governor revs up
Mansfield: Coleman 'outsourced' campaign
Poll: Lots of Runoffs for NC Republicans

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
Elections board disqualifies senate candidate
Sutton, Woodard face off for Senate 22 seat
McKissick, McKinney vie for District 20
Senate 21 race may require a runoff
Senate candidate is late on paperwork
Senate leader's campaign piggybank grows fat
Ray campaign ad raises eyebrows
Sparks fly in GOP primary for Senate 27
Insider challenges 'Ron Paul' Republican
Senate district dominates Mecklenburg races
Woodard late on required campaign forms

N.C. House
Evenly matched race in House 72
Liberal group hits Crawford on amendment
2 Republicans vie in House District 92
Republicans duke it out in House 16 primary
2 seasoned GOP candidates vie for House 79
Terry, Witherspoon tout support for education
Economy remains No. 1 issue in NC House 9
District 7 race candidate eyes disabled rights
Pittman, White vie for state House seat May 8
GOPers: Secretary of State a business diplomat
Brandon collects donations from out of state

Other Political News
Pawlenty added to NCGOP convention lineup
Early voting sets record in first week
Coble says Edwards prosecution is political
Early voting turnout high in WNC
Business silent on gay marriage amendment
Candidates launch last-minute ad blitz
Second Tillis staffer resigns

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Races to Watch: N.C. House Primaries

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 07:46:36 -0400

In yesterday's About the Capital, the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation provided an analysis of select N.C. Senate races we'll be watching closely on Primary Election night. Today we continue this Primary Election primer by focusing on the N.C. House Districts that we believe are the most noteworthy, interesting, and potentially surprising. (Reminder: The NCFEF will review all of the Primary Election results on May 9, the day after the Primaries, at a Primary Election Review Briefing from 2-4 p.m. at the North Carolina Farm Bureau office in Raleigh. For more information, and to register, click here.)

"Double-Bunked" Incumbents
We can guarantee that at least two incumbent state House members running for re-election this year will not be returning to the General Assembly, but we just don't know which two. House Districts 2 and 4 feature the only incumbent vs. incumbent primaries in the state legislature. This is a result of "double-bunking," or the drawing of two incumbent members within the same district lines during the redistricting process last year. In House District 2, Rep. Jim Crawford (D-Granville) is facing off against fellow Democrat Rep. Winkie Wilkins (D-Person). Rep. Crawford's cooperation with the GOP majority during the 2011 session has brought him political advantages and liabilities. Even at this late-stage, it is difficult to get a good grasp on all the dynamics at play in this race. A major deciding factor here is likely to be the role of outside groups that are seeking to influence the outcome of this primary in a Leaning Democratic district. There is one other Democratic candidate in this race as well as two GOP candidates on the other side of the ticket.

In House District 4, the battle between Rep. Efton Sager (R-Wayne) and fellow Republican Rep. Jimmy Dixon (R-Duplin) has maintained a lower profile, but the end result will be the same, at least one of these House members will not be returning to Raleigh next year. Rep. Dixon had more money on had at the end of 2011, giving him an edge, but with little information coming out of the district in recent weeks, the result could go either way. This is a Strong Republican district with a Democratic and Libertarian candidate who will face the winner of the primary in the fall. All other double-bunking situations in the General Assembly have been resolved, either by one member retiring (not filing to run again in 2012) or by one member running for a different elected office.

Other Incumbents "At-Risk"
House Rules Committee Co-Chair Rep. Stephen LaRoque (R-Lenoir) has had to deal with negative news stories and investigations surrounding the economic development organizations he operates. House District 10 has changed geographically as well, now spanning four counties and including many new voters. It's an open question whether his challenger, John Bell (R-Wayne) can capitalize on the incumbent's troubles and win, but this race certainly bears watching. A Democratic candidate is on the ballot, but has little chance of success in this Strong Republican district.

In addition to Rep. Crawford, another Democrat who voted with the Republican majority on several key issues, Rep. William Brisson (D-Bladen), is also facing a challenging primary. Matt Dixon (D-Bladen) is taking on Rep. Brisson in House District 22 from the political left, and outside groups (namely the N.C. Advocates for Justice - i.e., trial lawyers) have been sending direct mail pieces into the district attacking Rep. Brisson and supporting Dixon. Redistricting also plays a role, as a majority of the district's primary voters are new to Rep. Brisson. The incumbent is clearly vulnerable here, and the primary is "winner-take-all," since there is no GOP opponent.

House District 23 is representative of a primary race that has been under-reported but could be highly competitive come Primary Election night. Rep. Joe Tolson (D-Edgecombe) faces a challenge from Attorney William Solomon (D-Edgecombe) in an altered district that trades portions of Pitt County for all of Martin County and becomes a majority-minority district. New district boundaries, coupled with new demographics could surprise a few incumbents in this Primary Election, including Rep. Tolson.

In 2010, current-Rep. Marcus Brandon (D-Guilford) surprised many by beating then-incumbent Rep. Earl Jones (D-Guilford) in the primary in House District 60. Former Rep. Jones is back for a rematch, but questions remain for both candidates. Has former Rep. Jones put the work in to re-take the district, and can Rep. Brandon defend the seat without the element of surprise that aided him in 2010?

Rep. Larry Brown (R-Forsyth) is facing two strong primary challengers in House District 74 and is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the N.C. House. Forsyth County Commissioner Debra Conrad (R-Forsyth) and an executive with the local Realtors association, Glenn Cobb (R-Forsyth), are running in a district that incorporates little of Rep. Brown's current district. At least one outside group has come to the aid of Cobb, making Rep. Brown's path to re-election less than certain.

Rep. Julia Howard (R-Davie) in House District 79 has her hands full with a primary contest as well. There is evidence to suggest that her primary challenger is spending significant personal funds to wage a highly competitive battle here. Forsyth County Commissioner and owner of an outdoor advertising company, Bill Whiteheart (R-Forsyth) has given his campaign at least $250,000 according to reports filed with the State Board of Elections. That's serious money for an N.C. House seat, and instantly makes this a race to watch.

Rep. Chuck McGrady (R-Henderson) won House District 117 without opposition in 2010. He's not so lucky this year, and after crafting a voting record that places him as the most moderate member of the Republican House Caucus, he is vulnerable to a challenge from the political right. He had a substantial amount of campaign cash on hand at the end of 2011, and could effectively handle this primary contest, but there is some doubt there.

Appointed Incumbents
Appointed incumbents, or members who have been appointed to fill the unexpired term of a legislator who resigned, retired or left office for some other reason, are almost always more vulnerable than their elected colleagues. A pair of appointed incumbents in the N.C. House have primaries worth noting. Rep. Larry Pittman (R-Cabarrus) is the more endangered of the two. He barely won the appointment to House District 82, and the man he edged out, Chair of the Cabarrus County Board of Commissioners Jay White (R-Cabarrus), is challenging him in the primary. There is ample evidence to suggest that White will be tough to beat on May 8.

Likewise, in House District 97, Rep. Jason Saine (R-Lincoln) was appointed to fill the unexpired term of former Rep. Johnathan Rhyne (R-Lincoln). Rep. Saine faces two GOP challengers, one of whom is a Lincoln County Commissioner (Jim Klein). It appears that Rep. Saine hasn't taken this primary for granted, but races with unelected incumbents always bear watching.

The Possible Return of Former Legislators
House District 110, held by Rep. Kelly Hastings (R-Gaston), features an incumbent who is potentially vulnerable due to a rematch with the House member he upended in the 2010 GOP primary, former Rep. Pearl Burris Floyd (R-Gaston). Little information has come out of this district, but this rematch promises to be another interesting primary race.

In House District 49, former Rep. Russell Capps (R-Wake) is seeking a return to the N.C. House, but is probably the underdog in the contest which features neurosurgeon Jim Fulghum (R-Wake) who has been running ads for weeks in the expensive Raleigh media-market, and who is considered by many to be the frontrunner.

Another former legislator seeking a return to the House is now registered with a different political party than the one he served under for several terms. Former Rep. Arthur Williams (D-turned-R-Beaufort) wants to represent House District 6 again, though the district is geographically much larger now and incorporates three new counties Williams never represented. Two other Republicans and one Democrat are on the ballot here, and the GOP rivals are doing their best to make an issue of Rep. Williams past service in the N.C. House as a Democrat. It will be interesting to see how voters respond in this coastal Swing district.

Two former legislators from Iredell County are seeking a return to the General Assembly from neighboring districts. Former Rep. Frank Mitchell (R-Iredell), who currently serves as an Iredell County Commissioner, is seeking another term in the House representing House District 84. He faces two other Republicans and a Democrat in this Strong Republican open seat. Former Rep. Robert Brawley (R-Iredell) faces a tough primary to win a seat back in the N.C. House in House District 95. Rep. Grey Mills (R-Iredell) vacated the seat to run for Lt. Governor, which attracted two other GOP candidates in addition to former Rep. Brawley.

In 2010, former Rep. Wil Neumann (R-Gaston) left his N.C. House seat to run for the state Senate. He lost in the primary to current-Sen. Kathy Harrington (R-Gaston) and now he's eying a return to the House in House District 109, which is an open seat due to the retirement of Rep. Bill Current (R-Gaston). This four-way primary includes two county commissioners and a local business owner in addition to former Rep. Neumann. All four candidates have been actively campaigning, leaving the outcome in doubt. Rep. Neumann may have a slight advantage due to his past service, but it's unlikely anyone is betting on the result in this race.

Finally, when Rep. Phil Haire (D-Jackson) announced his retirement in House District 119, it attracted former Judge Danny Davis (D-Haywood) and former Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood) into the race. Former Sen. Queen has traditionally spent significant sums from his own pocket to win competitive elections, and he may need to do that again in order to win this tough primary.

While there are a number of additional House contests that merit attention on election night, we have attempted to hit the highlights above. Nonetheless, we invite you to contact us at any time if you have questions, comments, or insights into these and other primary races.

___________________________________________________________________

NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

_______________________________________________________

Federal Races
President
Obama to visit UNC next week as part of tour
Obama heads to NC to push for student loans
GOP presidential effort begins ramping up
Interest high at UNC campus for Obama talk
RNC pushes Obama to address Dem scandal
Youth vote still favors Obama
Poll: Statewide GOP primary contests

U.S. House
US House Democrats plot 2012 playing field
NC a front in Democrats' battle for US House
District 2
Ellmers opponents hardly have a dime to spare
Ellmers: GOP freshmen turned into 'monsters'
District 3
Eric Cantor backs Walter Jones
District 4
Republicans rely on backgrounds in NC-04
The price is not right for 4th district candidates
District 5
Newcomers seek Dem nomination in NC-05
Candidate files complaint against opponent
District 6
Rep. Coble and his primary challengers
District 7
McHenry endorses Rouzer for Congress
GOP candidates fight a fierce battle for NC-07
Pantano targets Rouzer's ratings
District 8
Is Kissell opponent Richard Hudson a birther?
Crowd of GOP candidates attracted to NC-08
Lumberton attorney giving Kissell a primary
NC-08 Republicans say Congress isn't working
Independent groups supporting for Keadle
Ex Gov. Martin backs Hudson in the 8th
NRA backs Democrat Kissell
District 9
Steinberg urges conversion to tea-party
Steinberg to NC-09 rivals: Let's make a deal
Pittenger's pension proves ironic
Pendergraph & Dulin mix it up at NC-09 forum
Candidates jockey for position in 9th District
District 10
McHenry wins money race in NC-10
3 Dems contend for nomination in NC-10
District 11
Shuler refunds donations, gives to Blue Dogs
NC-11 added to Dems' 'emerging races' list
District 13
Pro-Holding super PAC spends more on ads

Statewide
Governor
Independent endorses Dalton, Mansfield
Dem Gov candidates court black voters
Poll: Dalton erases Etheridge's lead
Etheridge omits of congressional tenure in ad
Perdue hosts $2 million DGA fund raiser
McCrory raises $1.7 million
Poll: Dalton Is the leading Dem candidate
Faison rips into absent Lt. Gov. Dalton

NC Council of State
Independent endorses Dalton, Mansfield
SEANC plans more Coleman advertising
4 GOPers vie to take on Secretary Marshall
Controversy brewing in Auditor primary race
Greenville native runs for Lt. Governor
Dem candidates for Lt. Gov differ on sales tax
Ag commish candidate visits Fayetteville
5 GOPers seek Auditor position

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
Attack ad attacked in GOP Senate 27 race
Challengers running against Sen. Bingham
Leone leaves Senate race, endorses Conrad
Economy key for District 25 GOP candidates
Two Republicans seek Senate 10 seat
GOP primary to decide Senate 29 race
Two Democrats face off in District 12 primary
Ray, Carney spar as TV ad finally hits the air
Senate 44 candidates talk jobs and economy

N.C. House
Candidate's signs: don't choose "the devil"
House 94 race an all GOP affair
Chamber is trying to help Brisson
GOPers in House 45 look to cut spending
House candidate fights rumors of criminal past
Rep. Darren Jackson wins NCAE endorsement
Gender, age separate candidates in House 71

Other Political News
Perdue, DNC applaud Parker's move
Black churchgoers break with Dems
Legislators from both parties face primaries
Anti-amendment group outspending supporters

###

Races to Watch: N.C. Senate Primaries

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 10:24:53 -0400

Believe it or not, North Carolina's May 8 Primary Election is less than two weeks away. This has been an unusual primary season in an unprecedented year in North Carolina politics. New Republican-drawn congressional and state legislative district maps - in addition to Gov. Perdue's late decision to forgo a re-election run - produced many crowed and competitive primary races, some of which weren't fully formed until the last day of the filing period at the end of February. Despite a slow start in many of the major contests on the ballot, every race is fully engaged now that we're in the primary home stretch. In fact, the latest absentee and early voting statistics show that more than 101,000 votes have already been cast for the Primary Election.

To help you sort through the multitude of primary races that will be decided on May 8, the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation is dedicating the next few issues of About the Capital to discuss select races to watch on Primary Election night. This primer of sorts, does not cover every consequential contest on the primary ballot, but highlights those that, in our view, constitute the most interesting and potentially surprising. Today we'll focus on N.C. Senate primary races to watch. Tomorrow we'll issue a special About the Capital discussing the N.C. House primary races to watch.

(Post-Primary Election Briefing: NCFEF staff will review all of the Primary Election results on May 9, the day after the Primary, at a Primary Election Review Briefing from 2:00 - 4:00 p.m. at the NC Farm Bureau Federation office in Raleigh. For more information, and to register, click here.)

House Members Looking to Switch Chambers
There are four State Senate districts in which a member of the N.C. House is looking to move into the Senate, but in each case, they must clear a competitive primary first. The dynamics are similar in coastal Senate Districts 1 and 2, where freshmen Reps. Bill Cook (R-Beaufort) and Norm Sanderson (R-Pamlico), respectively, are dealing with tough primary races with local businessmen. Due to the campaign finance reporting schedule, we will not have a good picture of the political war chests of state-level candidates until just a few days before the primary. Nonetheless, these money reports will give us additional insight into the races and how politically viable many of these Republican primary candidates will be.

Rep. Glen Bradley (R-Franklin) is another House member running in a competitive three-way GOP primary in the new Senate District 18. Two of the three Republican candidates are from Franklin County (Michael Schriver is the second Franklin County candidate), while one - Chad Barefoot - is from Wake County, which happens to be the most populous part of the district. Regardless of who the GOP nominee is here, there won't be any rest for the weary as the winner of this primary will face Democratic incumbent Sen. Doug Berger (D-Franklin) in the fall.

Rep. Earline Parmon (D-Forsyth) is also seeking a move into the Senate by running in the open seat NC Senate District 32. While the Democratic nominee will almost certainly win this seat in November, to earn that right Rep. Parmon must first beat Winston-Salem City Council member James Taylor, Jr. who has his own political base and is running an energetic campaign.

Vulnerable Incumbents?
Even if an incumbent was drawn into a district that favors his or her party, that doesn't mean that every incumbent will easily win another term. A few Senate incumbents are facing primary challenges that could prove difficult. Sen. Clark Jenkins (D-Edgecombe) has faced tough Democratic primary elections before, however, this year more than half of Senate District 3 is new territory and incorporates more African-American voters due to redistricting. Sen. Jenkins won his 2010 primary with less than 50 percent of the vote against two African-American candidates. This year he faces just one challenger, which could prove more challenging.

Sen. Stan Bingham has traditionally had easy re-election campaigns in Senate District 33, but two GOP challengers are running against him this year and are trying to cast Sen. Bingham (R-Davidson) in a less-than-conservative light. That message could resonate with conservative voters in the district, many of whom may go to the polls primarily to vote for the marriage amendment. This is a race worth keeping an eye on. Likewise, Sen. Chris Carney (R-Iredell) was appointed to fill the unexpired term of the late-Sen. Jim Forrester but faces two primary challengers in Senate District 44. David Curtis (R-Lincoln) is the candidate Sen. Carney barely edged out to win the Senate appointment, and he is back for a rematch of sorts. Former Rep. Karen Ray (R-Iredell) is looking for a return to the General Assembly and recently stirred up controversy over an ad attacking Sen. Carney for supporting a local public cable provider. With the district split among three counties the result of this race is hard to predict and worth watching.

The Return of Former Legislators?
In addition to former Rep. Ray mentioned above, there are other former legislators who are hoping to return to Raleigh. Two former Senators are battling in a new majority-minority Senate District 5. Former Sen. Don Davis (D-Greene), who lost his seat in 2010, is running against former Sen. Tony Moore (D-Pitt) to see who will take this seat. There is no GOP candidate here, so the winner of the primary will claim the post. The district has an outright majority of minority voters, which likely favors former Sen. Davis.

Another former legislator named Don Davis is looking for a comeback as well. Former Rep. Don Davis (R-Harnett), who left the General Assembly nearly 10 years ago, is facing a four-way GOP primary in the open Senate District 12. By all accounts this is a highly competitive race where a frontrunner hasn't really emerged. Similarly, former Sen. Larry Shaw (D-Cumberland) retired from the Senate in 2010, but was enticed to run for (what is effectively) his old Senate District 21 seat due to high legislative turnover in his area. He is not getting a free pass, however, as five other Democrats are running in the district. The district also encompasses less of Cumberland County than it did before, and all of Hoke County, so new voters are also in the mix making the outcome all that much more interesting. In Senate District 45, Sen. Dan Soucek (R-Watauga) toppled an incumbent Democrat in 2010, but the district looks very different this time and includes populous Caldwell County, which is home to former Rep. George Robinson (R-Caldwell), who is facing Sen. Soucek in the primary. This race has largely flown under the radar this primary season, but don't be surprised if this contest is closer than many expect.

Notable Open Seat Races
There are several other Senate primary contests that will determine, or effectively determine, who will hold the seat after November. A few open seat contests are worth mentioning:
๏ Senate District 22 features just two Democrats, Attorney Kerry Sutton (D-Durham) and Durham City Councilor Mike Woodard (D-Durham). Neither candidate appears to have an edge, but the nominee will be heavily favored in November.
๏ While four names appear on the ballot in the GOP primary in Senate District 27, only three candidates are actively seeking the seat, and most of the focus of the campaign has been centered on just two candidates, Justin Conrad (R-Guilford) and Trudy Wade (R-Guilford). The campaign between these two has gotten heated recently, and perhaps justifiably so, since the GOP nominee is favored to win this newly configured district.
๏ The Republican primary in Senate District 41 includes five candidates, two of which - John Aneralla (R-Mecklenburg) and Jeff Tarte (R-Mecklenburg) - are well organized and have been on the campaign trail for a while. A crowded race like this could easily prompt a runoff election and produce unexpected outcomes.

Again, there are many additional races that we simply don't have room to mention, but we invite you to contact us if you have any questions or if you have any insights into the races mentioned above or others not included.

___________________________________________________________________

NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

_______________________________________________________

Federal Races
President
Obama to visit UNC next week as part of tour
Obama heads to NC to push for student loans
GOP presidential effort begins ramping up
Interest high at UNC campus for Obama talk
RNC pushes Obama to address Dem scandal
Youth vote still favors Obama
Poll: Statewide GOP primary contests

U.S. House
US House Democrats plot 2012 playing field
NC a front in Democrats' battle for US House
District 2
Ellmers opponents hardly have a dime to spare
Ellmers: GOP freshmen turned into 'monsters'
District 3
Eric Cantor backs Walter Jones
District 4
Republicans rely on backgrounds in NC-04
The price is not right for 4th district candidates
District 5
Newcomers seek Dem nomination in NC-05
Candidate files complaint against opponent
District 6
Rep. Coble and his primary challengers
District 7
McHenry endorses Rouzer for Congress
GOP candidates fight a fierce battle for NC-07
Pantano targets Rouzer's ratings
District 8
Is Kissell opponent Richard Hudson a birther?
Crowd of GOP candidates attracted to NC-08
Lumberton attorney giving Kissell a primary
NC-08 Republicans say Congress isn't working
Independent groups supporting for Keadle
Ex Gov. Martin backs Hudson in the 8th
NRA backs Democrat Kissell
District 9
Steinberg urges conversion to tea-party
Steinberg to NC-09 rivals: Let's make a deal
Pittenger's pension proves ironic
Pendergraph & Dulin mix it up at NC-09 forum
Candidates jockey for position in 9th District
District 10
McHenry wins money race in NC-10
3 Dems contend for nomination in NC-10
District 11
Shuler refunds donations, gives to Blue Dogs
NC-11 added to Dems' 'emerging races' list
District 13
Pro-Holding super PAC spends more on ads

Statewide
Governor
Independent endorses Dalton, Mansfield
Dem Gov candidates court black voters
Poll: Dalton erases Etheridge's lead
Etheridge omits of congressional tenure in ad
Perdue hosts $2 million DGA fund raiser
McCrory raises $1.7 million
Poll: Dalton Is the leading Dem candidate
Faison rips into absent Lt. Gov. Dalton

NC Council of State
Independent endorses Dalton, Mansfield
SEANC plans more Coleman advertising
4 GOPers vie to take on Secretary Marshall
Controversy brewing in Auditor primary race
Greenville native runs for Lt. Governor
Dem candidates for Lt. Gov differ on sales tax
Ag commish candidate visits Fayetteville
5 GOPers seek Auditor position

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
Attack ad attacked in GOP Senate 27 race
Challengers running against Sen. Bingham
Leone leaves Senate race, endorses Conrad
Economy key for District 25 GOP candidates
Two Republicans seek Senate 10 seat
GOP primary to decide Senate 29 race
Two Democrats face off in District 12 primary
Ray, Carney spar as TV ad finally hits the air
Senate 44 candidates talk jobs and economy

N.C. House
Candidate's signs: don't choose "the devil"
House 94 race an all GOP affair
Chamber is trying to help Brisson
GOPers in House 45 look to cut spending
House candidate fights rumors of criminal past
Rep. Darren Jackson wins NCAE endorsement
Gender, age separate candidates in House 71

Other Political News
Perdue, DNC applaud Parker's move
Black churchgoers break with Dems
Legislators from both parties face primaries
Anti-amendment group outspending supporters

###

First Quarter Congressional Campaign Finances

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:18:34 -0400

There is an often-cited phrase in politics that goes something like "money can't win you an election, but it can certainly lose you an election." As we enter into the home stretch just before the May 8th Primary Election in North Carolina, candidates and their campaigns know this all too well. Many candidates over the years have spent considerable sums, sometimes more than their opponents, and have still come up short. More often than not, however, the candidate with the most money often wins.

The latest opportunity we have to assess the status of the campaign war chests of congressional candidates is the First Quarter Campaign Finance Reports recently filed with the Federal Election Commission detailing the campaign finances of candidates from January 1 through March 31, 2012. In today's About the Capital, the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation examines these reports and provides you with a timely analysis in advance of the fast-approaching and highly consequential May 8th Primary Election. (First Quarter campaign finance reports for candidates running for state level offices are not due until April 30, leaving little time to review them before the Primary Election.)

Overview
Before delving into the specifics of each of North Carolina's 13 congressional districts, it's helpful to provide an overview and context for these campaign finance reports. Among the first things one typically looks for is how much the candidates raised overall? Typically, incumbent lawmakers have an edge in this area, but only two currently serving members of North Carolina's congressional delegation who are running for reelection are included in the Top 10 based on First Quarter reports - Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) and Rep. Larry Kissell (D). A primary reason for this is that several non-incumbent candidates loaned or gave their campaigns significant sums out of their own pockets. Of the eight non-incumbents who collected the most money during the First Quarter, only two didn't contribute substantial sums from their own personal resources - Vernon Robinson (R) in the 8th District and Hayden Rogers (D) in the 11th District. Former N.C. Sen. Robert Pittenger (R) took in more than any other candidate in the state, over $1.2 million, however, Pittenger gave his campaign nearly $1 million of that amount. It's important to note, though, that even without this large personal contribution, he raised approximately $230,000 from individuals, which still places him among the most proficient congressional fundraisers in the state.

Beyond total receipts, it's also instructive to take a look at the source of those receipts. How much of those funds came from individual donors versus Political Action Committees (PACs). Incumbents almost always have better access to PACs than non-incumbents, and we certainly see that in the First Quarter reports, as incumbents make up nine of the top 10 recipients of PAC donations. See the charts below for the candidates with the best fundraising from individuals and from PACs.

As important as it is to look at how much money has been raised during the first three months of this year, perhaps the more important number in these reports as we near the Primary Election is how much did the candidates have on hand at the end of the reporting period. Even if a candidate has had solid fundraising, if those resources are not effectively managed, it can still leave his or her campaign in a financial bind leading into the last days before an election. Rep. Virginia Foxx (R), who almost always carries a very large bank balance, leads everyone else in North Carolina with close to $1.5 million in her campaign war chest.

U.S. Districts 1-6, 12
While North Carolina is home to a number of very competitive primary and general election contests, there are also several congressional races we do not anticipate being particularly hard-fought, and First Quarter campaign finance reports have re-enforced this in a number of districts. Despite the fact that Reps. G.K. Butterfield (D) in District 1, David Price (D) in District 4, and Mel Watt (D) in District 12 have primary and/or general election opponents, all of them appear to be well positioned to win another term. There is also little evidence that primary challengers to Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) in District 2 and Rep. Howard Coble (R) in District 6, as well as general election challengers to Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) in District 5, are gaining much traction. And while Rep. Walter Jones (R) in District 3 is the potential target of an anti-incumbent Super PAC that adds an element of uncertainty in that contest, his primary challenger continues to struggle to raise the campaign cash necessary to be competitive. As a result, we do not plan to examine the campaign finances of the candidates in those districts in detail here.

U.S. District 7
The Republican race to decide who will take on Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) in the fall is very competitive, and it is hard to distinguish at this point who may have an edge based on the latest campaign finance reports. Since entering the race, N.C. Sen. David Rouzer (R) has outraised 2010 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano, however, in the First Quarter of 2012, Pantano took in almost $50,000 more than Rouzer. Despite that, Rouzer had about $100,000 more in cash on hand at the end of March, and Pantano's campaign had nearly $70,000 in debt. Overall, the beneficiary in this tough GOP primary may ultimately be Democratic incumbent Rep. McIntyre (D), who has to run in a Republican-leaning district due to redistricting, but who has banked nearly $800,000, the second highest total for any congressional candidate in North Carolina. That may not be enough to save this seat for the Democrat, especially since we anticipate outside groups spending significant sums in this district, however, Rep. McIntyre is likely to have a resource advantage over his GOP opponent for most, if not all of this election year.

U.S. District 8
The 8th District was altered in redistricting to become more Republican-friendly, which attracted five GOP contenders into the race. Vernon Robinson (R), who has run in two other congressional districts in the past, had a big fundraising quarter, taking in nearly $323,000, and outpacing all of his GOP rivals, even though Scott Keadle and Richard Hudson both reported significant personal loans to their campaigns. Hudson had far more in cash on hand at the end of the reporting period and was the only Republican in the district to rival the cash on hand balance of Democratic incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell (D), who reported $464,000 in the bank. Rep. Kissell is not known to be a stellar fundraiser, but with the full understanding that he is very vulnerable in the re-drawn 8th District, Rep. Kissell has been posting decent fundraising numbers so far, taking in $180,000 in the First Quarter and having the third highest cash on hand amount in the state. Keep in mind, this GOP race may stretch into the summer if no Republican wins more than 40 percent of the vote and the contest is forced into a runoff election.

U.S. District 9
With 10 active candidates seeking the Republican nomination in this district, it is difficult to see how a runoff could be avoided here. Despite that, there is a clear frontrunner in terms of campaign cash, former N.C. Senator Robert Pittenger (R). Earlier, we noted his personal $1 million contributions to his campaign, which has already been a factor. Pittenger was the first candidate to go on the air with both positive ads and contrast ads. Several other candidates dipped into their personal resources to help fund their campaigns - Dan Barry, Ric Killian, and Edwin Peacock - but they are all still far behind Pittenger financially. One candidate who has not chipped in personal money, is Jim Pendergraph, a former Democratic Mecklenburg County Sheriff and current Republican County Commisioner, who is also considered a top contender in this race. He was one of the best fundraisers in this district in the First Quarter, but only had $85,000 in cash on hand at the end of the period. This may make it difficult for Pendergraph to keep pace with the crowd of self-financing candidates in the primary's closing days. It seems everyone here is gunning to make it into what will most certainly be a runoff election in this crowded and expensive primary.

U.S. District 10
The revised 10th District held by Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) now includes most of Democratic-leaning Asheville, which has attracted two notable Democratic contenders, Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy (D) and N.C. Rep. Patsy Keever (D). Rep. McHenry (R) has a GOP primary challenger, but the interesting primary contest here is on the Democratic side. Mayor Bellamy raised a solid $121,000 in the First Quarter, and somewhat surprisingly, was closely trailed by N.C. Rep. Keever (D) who brought in $114,000. The cash on hand balance for both of these candidates is nearly as close, with mayor Bellamy enjoying just a $10,000 edge at the end of March. Regardless of who the Democratic nominee is, the district favors electing a Republican and Rep. McHenry has a substantial cash on hand advantage at this point. Although, it has been a while since Rep. McHenry faced a Democrat who was capable of raising the kind of money necessary to mount a formidable challenge, which may prove to be the case here.

U.S. District 11
As in other districts around the state, the candidates in District 11 who have invested personal money into their campaigns have a financial advantage that may be decisive, especially in an open seat contest like this one. The Republican primary includes eight candidates, three of whom have invested in their own campaigns - Mark Meadows, Ethan Wingfield, and Vance Patterson. Another leading candidate, District Attorney Jeff Hunt (R), has struggled somewhat to keep pace, but has managed to release at least one radio ad and TV ad in the district, where only two other candidates have gone on the air. The real fundraising surprise in this district, however, was Democrat Hayden Rogers, the former Chief of Staff to retiring Democratic incumbent Rep. Heath Shuler (D). Rogers has apparently made good use of his Washington and Western North Carolina connections to raise an impressive $301,000 in the First Quarter. However, the district now solidly leans Republican, making it very difficult for any Democrat to win here. Rogers will need continued fundraising success to make this race competitive in the fall.

U.S. District 13
The Republican primary in this drastically different 13th Congressional District is essentially the election, and what an election it has turned out to be. Initially, former Raleigh Mayor and current Chairman of the Wake County Commission Paul Coble (R) was better known among Wake County Republicans (Wake County makes up a majority of the district's voters) than his rival, former US Attorney George Holding (R). Holding's financial advantage throughout the campaign, however, has probably changed that. Since launching his first campaign in August of last year, Holding has loaned his campaign over $200,000 (total receipts for his campaign so far top $700,000) and has been running TV ads since last fall. Paul Coble has raised a total of just over $200,000, with nearly $75,000 coming in this most recent quarter. Neither candidate has a huge cash on hand total, though Coble's $11,000 is overshadowed by Holding's $71,000. Another key factor here is that Holding's financial advantage isn't just limited to the amount of money he has raised and spent. A Super PAC has been created to support Holding's candidacy. Since March 2, the American Foundations Committee has spent $366,000 to produce and air TV ads supporting George Holding and attacking Paul Coble. With resources this heavily weighted in George Holding's favor, Paul Coble is facing a stiff headwind in this primary.

___________________________________________________________________

NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

_______________________________________________________

Federal Races
President
Obama at a high in North Carolina
Gingrich slams Obama at tea party events
Gingrich in Charlotte, tours NASCAR Hall
Americans Elect vies for spot on fall NC ballot
Romney will give 'prebuttal' to DNC speech
Obama to visit Raleigh area next week
Gingrich scheduled to visit Fayetteville
Romney: Obama failed on jobs

U.S. House
GOP-drawn districts hard on Southern Dems
Dem scandal an issue in congressional races?
GOP likes chances in NC congressional races
Congressional candidates loaning money
Voters swimming in a sea of candidates
District 3
Retired police chief Palombo challenges Jones
District 6
Coble has 75% favorability...but vulnerable?
District 7
Pantano rides horse in Rouzer's latest TV ad
NC-07 candidates try to distinguish themselves
Pantano surges in race for campaign cash
GOP candidates for 7th District square off
District 8
Goals for NC-08 candidates similar
Robinson leads 8th District rivals in fundraising
Larry Kissell joins Blue Dogs
District 9
Tempers flare at 9th District GOP forum
Spiritual conversion guides Leonczyk's quest
NC-09 candidates wade into marriage debate
Home from war, Killian steps out of shadows
Myrick defends Pendergraph from attacks
Big money ruling 9th District race
Being moderate makes Peacock stand out
NC-09 forum: Lower taxes, less government
Pittenger mailer attacking Pendergraph
Pittenger knows conservative campaign trail
District 10
Keever nearly ties Bellamy in money race
Bellamy makes campaign stop in Shelby
Bellamy campaigns in Hickory
District 11
Rogers raises $300k in six weeks
Patterson first to file finance report in NC-11
Wingfield Launches Ad in 11th District
Rogers leads in NC-11 money race
Election TV ads on the way
8 Republicans, 3 Democrats run for open 11th
District 12
Political newcomer looks to challenge Watt
District 13
Holding, Coble clash again over TV ad
GOP race turns nasty in redrawn 13th District
NC-13 race turns on Super PAC spending
Fact check: Holding Super PAC attacks Coble
Holding out raising Coble in 13th district

Statewide
Governor
McCrory holds 9 point lead over Dalton in poll
Dalton on NCDP harassment allegations
SEANC poll: Etheridge up 10, Coleman up 9
3 candidates make long-shot bids for Governor
Debate-athon for Dem Gov candidates
McCrory (quietly) favors marriage amendment
Little discord at Dem gubernatorial debate
Dems pick on GOP more than each other
Dalton launches his first TV ad
Fact check: Debate statements stand up
Dem Gov debate: Criticism grows sharper
Democratic candidates vow to veto voter ID

NC Council of State
SEANC poll: Etheridge up 10, Coleman up 9
Snapshot of Council of State races
Labor candidate announces endorsements
Mooneyham: GOP wants superintendent job
State auditor visits Surry on campaign swing
GOP candidates for schools chief vary on role

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
Race for open Senate 21 seat is competitive
Senate 33 hopefuls share positions
Berger names new press secretary
2 GOPers seek Senate seat held by Basnight
Senate District 33 winner will take office

N.C. House
Ethics investigation launched over TV ad
LaRoque opponent picks up endorsement
NC House 43 GOP candidates drop out of race
DA investigates complaint against Bonham
Newcomers vie for chance to challenge Glazier
Two GOPers challenge Dockham in primary

Other Political News
NCDP roiled by questions about harassment
NCDP Executive Director Jay Parmley resigns
State officials demand that Dem Chair resign
Asheville to see gay marriage TV ads soon
Letter details sexual harassment claims

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Campaign Ads Already Hitting the Airwaves

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 12:26:49 -0400

In a typical election year, North Carolina voters are used to the onslaught of campaign ads in the two to three weeks leading up to Election Day, however, this election year is proving to be anything but typical. North Carolina was identified early on as a 2012 presidential battleground state, ensuring consistent attention from President Obama, national parties, and outside groups. Republicans in the state legislature redrew our congressional and state legislative district maps prompting a big political shuffle from the mountains to the coast and contributing to a high number of open seat contests this year (three open seat congressional races, two open seat statewide contests, 10 open state Senate seats, and 34 open seats in the state House). Of course, Gov. Perdue's unexpected announcement earlier this year that she would not seek a second term added more uncertainty to an already dynamic year in North Carolina politics. All of this, and more, has set the foundation for an unprecedented year of political advertising in North Carolina.

We're 40 days from the primary election on May 8, but campaign and political ads already have been peppering the airwaves for weeks. The dramatically altered congressional and legislative maps have produced new districts, and many of those districts favor the election of Republican candidates. The GOP successes of 2010 and more Republican-friendly territory has ignited competitive GOP primaries across the state. As a result, the vast majority of ads that have run thus far are coming from Republicans and aligned groups. These multi-candidate contests (one congressional race features 11 Republican candidates) are prompting some campaigns to get a jump on the competition and start airing TV and radio ads now.

Former N.C. Sen. Robert Pittenger (R) was the first candidate to start running TV ads in the very crowded 9th Congressional District. His ad, aimed at introducing himself to Republican primary voters in the district, began running several weeks ago. Most of these early ads are attempts to present the candidate to a wide audience of voters, often times in new areas of the state where the candidate may not have run before, if they have run at all. Wake County Commissioner Paul Coble (R), who is running in the new 13th Congressional District, began running this ad a few weeks ago to introduce himself to voters as a budget cutter. Coble's chief GOP rival, former U.S. Attorney George Holding (R), started running targeted ads like this one with similar themes months ago. Other early ads from GOP congressional candidates typically set up President Obama and his policies as a foe, and then seek to introduce the candidate as an effective foil. N.C. Sen. David Rouzer (R) who is running in the 7th Congressional District does this in his first ad, as does John Whitely, a candidate in the 8th Congressional District in his recent ad .

North Carolina voters are seeing more than just candidate ads on TV. Outside groups are investing heavily in North Carolina. Americans for Prosperity, for example, has already become a big player in the state's political ad wars, creating ads aimed at national political issues as well as state-specific issues. Early this year, North Carolina was included as part of a national AFP ad buy to run a 60-second ad hitting President Obama over government backed loans to a company that ultimately failed. That AFP ad actually elicited a direct response from the Obama campaign, using their first TV ad of the 2012 election cycle to rebut the AFP ad's claims. More recently, AFP's North Carolina affiliate started running an ad touting the benefits of the GOP crafted state budget, an effort clearly aimed at responding to criticisms over the past several months and preempting inevitable campaign ads from Democrats and their allies.

Outside groups are also creating ads targeted at supporting or opposing specific candidates in North Carolina. The North Carolina Advocates for Justice (trial lawyers) have produced an ad critical of N.C. Rep. William Brisson (D), who was one of a handful of Democrats that voted with the GOP on some high profile legislation in 2011. The NCAJ ad specifically highlights a vote surrounding tort reform legislation taken up last year. There are also outside groups expressly supporting specific candidates.

Super PACs have played a big role in the GOP presidential primary campaign this year, but Super PACs aren't just for presidential campaigns. George Holding in the 13th Congressional District has the good fortune of having a number of wealthy individuals willing to support his campaign by forming a separate entity, the American Foundations Committee, which so far has produced an ad echoing Holding's campaign themes. This group already has spent around $200,000 running the ad in the Raleigh media market.

There are already far too many political ads for us to detail here, but you can go to the "Favorites" section of the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation's NCFEF YouTube channel to see many more TV and web political ads. As additional ads are posted online, we'll continue to ad them to the "Favorites" section of our YouTube channel throughout the 2012 election cycle.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
Santorum's N.C. supporters holding out hope
North Carolina Republican primary poll
FLOTUS to speak at NCA&T graduation

U.S. House
Rouzer TV ad hits Obama, emphasizes bio
Kissell touts poll showing him in the lead
Kissell, and opponent, bouyed by new poll
Myrick spends most on family business
Dem NC-11 contenders agree, disagree
Rouzer's first TV ad airs in 7th District
Rogers generates momentum in 11th District
Helms' political heirs vie for 13th District win
Dems in 11th differ on health reform
NC-11 GOP candidate profiles
Pantano ad criticizes Rouzer over lobbying
McCain endorses Killian in the 9th District
11th District Republicans debate
Hunt gets endorsements from prosecutors
NC-11 candidates speak at Burke GOP forum
GOP candidates in NC-7 race address voters
Rep. Jones target of Super PAC
Meadows wins Burke GOP straw poll

Statewide
Governor
Dem candidate revives Etheridge video assault
A Closer Look: Blackmon running for Governor
Dem candidates help amendment opponents
Etheridge banking on doggedness in Gov run
Wright makes his pitch in invisible primary
McCrory's campaign team
Candidates talk jobs, swipe GOP
Former chief justice holds fundraiser for Dalton
Poll: Dems continue to trail McCrory
McCrory pushes issue that benefits firm's client
Quiet Dem Gov primary in North Carolina
McCrory unveils NC public education platform

NC Council of State
Coleman gets Emily's List endorsement
Dem candidates help amendment opponents
AFL-CIO endorses Coleman
Clayton endorses Coleman for Lt. Governor
Superintendent candidate skips board meeting

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
Newton drops defamation lawsuit
Berger spokesman is new caucus director

N.C. House
Familiar faces run for 35th NC House seat
House 95 candidates focus on immigration
Three vie for 39th NC House district

Other Political News
Dem convention scrambling to raise funds
Key state and federal primaries to watch
NC and the marriage amendment
Scraps for the campaign finance program
Does NC support sales tax hike? It depends
Redistricting augurs continued GOP surge
Richard Vinroot opposes marriage amendment
Factcheck.org weighs in on AFP budget ad

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Election Calendar Reminder

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 08:57:55 -0400

This election year got started off with a bang when Gov. Perdue (D) announced she wouldn't be seeking a 2nd term, which exacerbated a political shuffle already in progress across the state. Since then, it seems each day and week has been marked by important political announcements and election deadlines/milestones. If you were hoping for a respite from the 2012 political treadmill, you're out of luck. It's easy to think of election years as having two big dates, the primary election day and the General Election day, but there is a lot more to the election calendar than that. To help you (and us) keep it all straight, we wanted to provide you with the key milestones as we head into the election year in earnest.

Wednesday, Feb. 29, 2012: Filing Period ends - This deadline has already passed, but it's helpful to keep in mind the date when the 2012 election contests were set.

Monday, Mar. 19, 2012: Primary Absentee ballots - If you thought the time between the close of the filing period and the primary election day was short, consider that absentee ballots for the primary election have already been printed and sent out to voters. According to the latest figures from the State Board of Elections, nearly 6,000 North Carolina voters have requested absentee ballots. Voters are voting (already).

Friday, Apr. 13, 2012: Voter Registration/Party Affiliation change deadline - In order to be eligible to vote in the Primary Election, this is the last day you can register to vote. This is also the last day for voters to change their party affiliation before the May 8 Primary Election.

Thursday, Apr. 19, 2012: One-stop begins - One-stop absentee voting, commonly referred to early voting, begins for the primary. County Boards of Election will have at least one polling place open five days a week through the end of early voting.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012: Absentee ballot requests due - With some very limited exceptions, this is the last day to request absentee ballot for the Primary Election.

Saturday, May 5, 2012: One-stop voting ends - One-stop voting/early voting for the Primary Election ends.

Monday, May 7, 2012: Voted Absentee ballots due - Absentee ballots must be received by a county board of elections office by 5:00 p.m. (If mailed, absentee ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day, and received no later than 5:00 pm on May 11, 2012.)

Tuesday, May 8, 2012: 2012 PRIMARY ELECTION - The polls open at 6:30am and close at 7:30pm.

2012 2nd Primary Election (Runoff election) - The date of the 2nd Primary Election, commonly referred to as the Runoff election, will be June 26, 2012 only if there is no second primary needed for a U.S. House of Representatives contest. If a runoff election is needed for a U.S. House seat, the second primary election will be held July 17, 2012 for all runoff elections in the state. Depending on the date of the second primary, there are corresponding schedules for early/one-stop voting and absentee balloting.

Friday, June 29, 2012: Unaffiliated candidate petition deadline - If you thought we already knew every candidate who could be on the November ballot, that's only mostly true. This is the last day to file a petition to become an unaffiliated candidate on the November 6 General Election ballot. Petitions are due by noon.

Friday, Sept. 7, 2012: Absentee Ballots Ready - Absentee ballots ready for General Election on this day.

Friday, Oct. 12, 2012: Voter registration deadline - This is the last day someone can register in order to be eligible to vote in the November 6th General Election, unless they register and vote at the same time during one-stop/early voting. Individuals may register in person and then vote at one-stop voting sites in the person's county of residence during the one-stop absentee voting period (October 18-November 3).

Thursday, Oct. 18, 2012: One-stop begins - One-stop absentee voting (or early voting) begins for the General Election on this day.

Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012: Absentee ballot requests due - With some very limited exceptions, this is the last day to request absentee ballot for the General Election.

Saturday, Nov. 3, 2012: One-stop ends - One-stop voting/early voting for the General Election ends.

Monday, Nov. 5, 2012: Voted Absentee ballots due - Absentee ballots must be received by a county board of elections office by 5:00 p.m. (If mailed, absentee ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day, and received no later than 5:00 pm on November 9, 2012.)

Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012: 2012 GENERAL ELECTION - The polls open at 6:30am and close at 7:30pm.

Campaigns and candidates are certainly well aware of these dates, and we should be as well. It's a crowded election calendar that will surely fly past, and we at the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation will be working hard throughout it to provide you with timely and insightful analysis and information.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
White House trying to connect with Hispanics
GOP takes aim at Perdue, Obama
Romney coming to NC April 18
Obama campaign opens 11th office
Gingrich bides time as spoiler
Poll: Santorum leads GOP field in NC
What might Mitt run into in North Carolina?

U.S. House
Dem candidates fire at Shuler's record at forum
Elections board rejects appeal to get on ballot
Jones' impeachment stand draws criticism
Killian back from Afghanistan
Foxx seeking support under new district lines
A Closer Look: Ilario Pantano
Candidates speak out on U.S. war involvement
Rep. Ellmers draws a trio of GOP challengers
Congressional candidate injured in car wreck
NC Dems among most vulnerable incumbents
Holding goes after Coble on the budget
Richard Hudson begins airing TV ad
Peller promises positive campaign
Candidate for NC-02 withdraws from race
5 GOPers, 1 Dem seek to oust Rep. Kissell

Statewide
Governor
Dem Gov candidate asks all others to drop out
Dalton comfortable with style as Gov hopeful
Lt. Gov. Dalton releases tax returns
Perdue speaks out at Charlotte Dem event
GOP takes aim at Perdue, Obama
Etheridge stumps for governor for New Bern
Gubernatorial hopeful touts jobs plan
Governor candidates to debate in Laurinburg
NBC-17 to host Dem Gov debate April 18

NC Council of State
Forest touts vision for state
Mansfield gets help from prominent donor
3 GOP candidates for Lt. Governor debate
Secretary of state candidate talks jobs
Goldwater to raise money for Goodwin
Coleman gets nod from Lillian's List

State Legislative Races
NC GOP facing Northwest challenge
Tillis, Berger call for debate with Perdue
Voters give GOP-led legislature thumbs down

N.C. Senate
GOPers square off for new Senate District 27
NC Democrats disown 'racist' state candidates
Sutton's Senate bid endorsed by Sen. Kinnaird
Controversial N.C. candidate says he's quitting
Sen. Bingham loses local straw poll
3 Dems vie to replace veteran in Senate 32

N.C. House
NCGA staffers used in lawmaker's TV ad
Board rules candidates can run in District 72
Trial lawyers' ad attacks Rep. Brisson
Rep. McCormick suspends House campaign
Ethics complaint lodged against Crawford
Allegations resurface during Iredell GOP forum

Other Political News
NC miscellaneous polling
Burr runs as underdog in GOP whip race
Tillis, Berger call for debate with Perdue

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2012 Candidate Questionnaires

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 11:12:08 -0400

As the dust was still settling from the close of North Carolina's candidate filing period at the end of February, the Research Committee and staff of the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation was putting the final touches on our 2012 Candidate Questionnaires. These questionnaires are designed to provide candidates for the U.S. House, Governor

and Council of State posts, State Supreme Court, State Court of Appeals, N.C. Senate and N.C. House the opportunity to share their opinions and perspectives on a wide range of important business-related policy issues. Considering that there are 550 candidates seeking these offices in 2012, this is a monumental undertaking, but we know how critically important it is for business leaders and the public to understand where the candidates stand on the issues that will impact the future viability of North Carolina's business climate, economy and potential for job creation.

As in 2010, we developed three different versions of the 2012 Candidate Questionnaire: one for congressional candidates, one for judicial candidates, and one for candidates running for state-level offices including Governor and other elected Executive Branch positions (the Council of State) as well as the State Legislature. Producing three separate surveys enables us to target a set of issues and questions most relevant to the candidates and the jurisdiction of the offices they are seeking to fill. You may download a copy of the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation's 2012 Candidate Questionnaires by clicking the links below:

2012 NCFEF Candidate Questionnaire for U.S. House Candidates
2012 NCFEF Candidate Questionnaire for Governor & Council of State Candidates
2012 NCFEF Candidate Questionnaire for Appellate Court Judicial Candidates
2012 NCFEF Candidate Questionnaire for N.C. Senate & N.C. House Candidates

All 550 congressional, appellate judicial, and state-level candidates who filed to run for office have been sent a NCFEF 2012 Candidate Questionnaire, and over the coming days the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation staff will be contacting the candidates to encourage them to complete and return their survey. If you know any of these candidates personally or have conversations with them in the next couple of weeks, please also encourage them to participate in the NCFEF's 2012 Candidate Questionnaire. Once all questionnaires are received, they will be scanned and posted on the NCFEF's website, so you will be able to see the candidates' responses in their own handwriting - valuable insight as we head into the 2012 primary and general elections!

Thank you for your support, and if you have any questions, please let us know!

(The N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation is a nonpartisan research and education organization and does not endorse political candidates or political parties.)

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
Obama maximizes support in GOP strongholds
NC matters to GOP presidential nomination
Obama's NC visit has GOP grumbling
Newt picks up NC endorsements
Obama up in NC, primary hinges on Newt
NC a target in GOP presidential battle
Santorum organizing a NC campaign

U.S. House
NC-9 hopefuls struggle to pick up TV ad buys
Blue Dogs endorse Shuler chief of staff
Poll: Pantano doubling up Rouzer
Some contenders gain momentum in NC-11
Meadows wins Caldwell County straw poll
Hoyer, Hunt to host fundraiser for Kissell

Statewide
Governor
Democratic candidates squabble over lost jobs
Q & A with Pat McCrory
Pat McCrory to speak in Shelby
SEANC unlikely to endorse in Dem primary
NCAE will sit out Dem primary for governor
McCrory leads Dem field by double digits
AFL-CIO meeting to consider Governor's race

NC Council of State
Sebastian takes helm of Gurley campaign
Coleman stumbles on gay marriage question
Coleman pleased with SEANC's nod

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
GOPers square off for new Senate District 27
NC Democrats disown 'racist' state candidates

N.C. House
Williams lone Dem running for 76th House seat
Incumbent House Dems battle in Granville

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Looking at Candidates Through Media Markets

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 13:55:39 -0500

There's a great line from an episode of the TV political drama, "The West Wing", where the campaign manager for a presidential candidate quips, "I don't know why people cling to this antiquated notion of states. For the purposes of presidential campaigning, we really live in the United Media Markets of America, don't we?" Voters often do not envision political campaigns through the prism of media markets, but for candidates and political consultants, it is a critical point of view. In a presidential battleground state like North Carolina, understanding media markets can help explain, at least to some degree, why the candidates do what they do and where they do it.

A case in point are visits by President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, First Lady Michelle Obama, and other members of the President's administration to North Carolina as recent as the President's visit to Charlotte yesterday. According to Mrs. Obama, who spoke to a group in Charlotte last week, "We are going to spend a lot of time in this state." She even went to far as to quip, "You will be sick of us after a while." Be assured, these visits - and particularly the location of these visits - are not arranged by random chance, but instead are part of an overall strategy aimed at keeping President Obama in the White House following this November's General Election. An analysis of the state's media markets helps to explain why.

North Carolina's Media Markets
North Carolina is generally divided into 10 media markets. Two of these cover well over half of the state's voters - Raleigh/Triangle and Charlotte. When you throw the Triad into the mix, you can reach more than 75 percent of North Carolina's registered voters.

The remainder of the state is divided among smaller media markets around Asheville, Greenville, and Wilmington, plus four small corners of the state that get the majority of their local news from media sources based in other states. This latter group makes up less than four percent of the registered voters in North Carolina, and while that may not seem significant, we must not forget that President Obama won North Carolina by just over 14,000 votes, which equates to three-tenths of one percent of the votes cast in the presidential race in North Carolina in 2008.

While population size, and perhaps more importantly the number of registered voters living in a media market is key, understanding who lives in the media market is equally important. For example, 30 percent of North Carolina voters live in the Raleigh media market, and included in that number is nearly 40 percent of the state's African-American voters. To put it simply, the African-American community is a critical component of President Obama's re-election efforts, therefore communicating with these voters and ensuring they turnout in large numbers, as in 2008, is a top priority for the President's campaign. TV ads focused in the Raleigh media market will be a much more effective way to target this demographic than say, the Asheville media market which has over eight percent of the state's voters but less than two percent of North Carolina's African-American voters.

Past Elections Results by Media Market
Looking at past statewide election results by media market gives us both a sense of the general political bent of the area and a glimpse into two different paths to statewide victory for Democrats. Despite the fact that President Obama narrowly won North Carolina in 2008, he only won a majority of votes in one media market - Raleigh. President Obama ran up the score in the Raleigh media market, beating GOP nominee Sen. John McCain by 185,780 votes or nearly 14 percentage points. Raleigh is also the only media market that N.C. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) won in her unsuccessful 2010 US Senate election bid against incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R). Secretary Marshall won the Raleigh media market by less than five percentage points, which was hardly enough to counter Sen. Burr's much larger margins in other areas of the state. In the 2008 gubernatorial contest, Gov. Bev Perdue (D) also got a big boost in the Raleigh media market, besting GOP nominee Pat McCrory by 197,337 votes, or nearly 15 percentage points. It seems clear from these recent results that for Democratic candidates to be competitive statewide in North Carolina, they must stake their ground in the Raleigh media-market, and work to maximize their performance in other areas of the state.

Beyond the Raleigh media-market, the 2008 presidential and gubernatorial elections seem to indicate there are at least two different paths to success for Democrats. As the chart above indicates, these paths for President Obama and Gov. Perdue in 2008 diverged somewhat. Of the North Carolina-based media markets, Gov. Perdue won Raleigh by a wide margin, lost Charlotte by a wide margin, and won everywhere else by small amounts. President Obama won only Raleigh by a wide margin, lost Charlotte by a modest margin, and minimized his losses in the rest of the state. Both of these paths are pretty narrow, and Republicans could easily prevent one or both from being replicated in 2012.

Of course, there are multitudes of ways for campaigns to communicate with voters and advertizing over broadcast and cable television represents only one, albeit a substantial, method. Door-to-door campaigning can be incredibly effective but is a time intensive and an impractical way to reach a large number of voters in a statewide race or contest in a large district. Direct mail and radio advertizing are time-honored campaign tools, and online and social media solutions are exploding. Nonetheless, 30- or 60-second TV ads, although relatively expensive, are an integral part of how major campaigns communicate with voters.

Presidential Visits and Media Markets
While its easy to think of media only in the context of paid advertising, the President, the First Lady, the Vice President and even high level cabinet officials also garner significant free earned media when they visit communities in a state like North Carolina. Local news outlets often provide live video coverage, and even break into regular TV programming to cover Air Force One landing at the area's airport. Even when visits are under the auspices of official business, the locations of presidential stops are carefully and strategically selected. One of the factors considered when choosing a location is almost certainly the media market it's in and which voters will see the local news coverage typically accompanying these visits.

Since just June of 2011, President Obama has made three visits in the Raleigh media market, two in the Triad media market, one in the Asheville media market, and he was just in Charlotte media market yesterday. That's seven public events in four media markets in just the last eight months alone. Of course, the Charlotte media market is being inundated with coverage in the lead up to the Democratic National Convention there in September, an event which probably allows the President some leeway to make fewer personal visits to the Charlotte area in advance of the Convention.

NCFEF Presidential Tracker
You can see all of the President's visits to North Carolina since taking office in January of 2009 by visiting our new Presidential Tracker. The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation will be updating the Presidential Tracker every time President Obama visits the state, so bookmark this link and keep tabs on when and where the President is visiting North Carolina.

There are many days left in a very busy political year, and these coming months will be chock full of broadcast and cable coverage of political campaigns. Television "face time" is at a premium, and candidates are scrambling to make media buys in a highly competitive marketplace. Political consultants tell us that the ability of candidates to get on television will be more important, more difficult and more expensive this year than it ever has been. While it is unlikely that we will abandon state and county designations and replace them with the outline of media markets, as implied on "The West Wing", media markets are a defining factor in political campaign strategies and will help determine the future political landscape of North Carolina.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
New polling in GOP statewide primaries
First Lady raises money, stumps across state
Obama to visit Gaston to talk about economy
First Lady jokes NC will be tired of the Obamas
Voter recruitment goes online
NC GOPers could see contested prez primary

U.S. House
9th District race is crowded
Rep. Coble backs marriage amendment
Despite late dash, Tabor missed deadline
Foriest running for Congress
Harris blasts competitors as 'bored, smooth'
Candidates spar for 13th District GOP nod
More candidates again near top of NC ballots
GOP candidates debate in 13th District
Change coming to NC's House delegation
GOP challenger calls Rep. McHenry 'sleazy'
Myrick, McHenry endorse in the 9th District
Coble goes after Holding on Super PAC
Meadows wins in Buncombe GOP straw poll
Macon GOP leader: Tough choice in NC-11
Myrick's endorsement irks Dulin
Candidate filing appeal set for next week
Holding accuses Coble of throwing mudballs
Social conservative group endorses Meadows

Statewide
Governor
McCrory, Faison won't release tax records
Dems' primary for governor to be short & sweet
Faison: Dalton should forfeit salary
Dalton names campaign team
New polling in Dem statewide primaries
Poll gives McCrory solid margins over Dems
Sebelius: No endorsement of Dalton intended
Dem Gov candidates will have several debates
McCrory visits Reidsville
Faison names campaign team for Gov race
Perdue to headline Rogers fundraiser
Dalton unveils long list of endorsements
Three Dems to debate next month on UNC-TV

NC Council of State
Cooper has clear ride for attorney general win
Rep. Grey Mills files for Lt. Governor
Conservative radio host joins Treasurer's race
Mayor of Hickory runs for Auditor
Labor candidate faces DWI charge
State personnel director resigns to campaign

State Legislative Races
Bumper crop of candidates running for NCGA
About 1/4 of NCGA uncontested
Running the numbers on NCGA races
2012 races take shape
Varying reasons behind unopposed races

N.C. Senate
Greensboro councilwoman files for Senate
Sen. Atwater will not seek re-election
Tarte kicks off campaign, files for Senate seat
Schriver announces support for Senate bid
Larry Shaw's change of heart for NC Senate
Nielsen files to challenge Sen. Newton
Sen. Soucek to face primary
Former DMV head running for Senate 19
Five Republicans vie for Senate 41 seat
Butler files to run against Sen. Goolsby
Moore County GOPer files for Senate 29
Candidates in the 10th & 11th Senate Districts
Residency challenge in Senate District 5
Two Dems, two Reps fight for Senate 25 seat

N.C. House
Malone-Cutlip GOP primary shaping up
Two file for Legislature
Primary in Gaston will be mostly GOP races
McLawhorn files for re-election
Surprise candidates emerge in Cumberland
Dem Martin files for Dockham's House seat
Three non-incumbents essentially win already
Lambeth pulls out of House 19 race
Residency challenges in NC House District 72
Primary for House 119 attracts new GOP field
Parker leaving GOP race in House District 63

Other Political News
Some familiar faces seeking new jobs
An election primer for the 2012 races
Redistricting case schedule
NC pays more for GOP maps

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Complete List of 2012 Candidates

Wed, 29 Feb 2012 10:20:34 -0500

Candidate filing closed today at noon and after months of anticipation the 2012 election landscape is set. The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is diligently working to comb through the candidates and prepare for our upcoming event on Monday. Click on the Election Tracker for a complete listing of who filed to run in 2012 and be sure to register today if you haven't already for our 2012 Candidate Review Briefing on Monday, March 5th. Come to this event to get a better understanding of where these races stand. (Please note we are working with the NC State Board of Election who is in turn working with all 100 local boards of elections to ensure a complete and final candidate list, however minor changes may still occur.)

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
3rd party nearly on NC ballot
Obama campaign opens seventh office in NC
First Lady visits Raleigh, Charlotte on Friday
Obama opens 8th campaign office in NC

U.S. House
Rep. McIntyre explores his new district
Holding backers form Super PAC
Motsinger files for 5th House District
Rep. McIntyre introduces self to Lenoir County
Rep. Ellmers gets another opponent
Rep. Mike McIntyre files to run for re-election
Ellmers ranks 15th most conservative
3 GOPers file to challenge Ellmers in primary
Rogers blasts trade policies while filing
Charlotte attorney to challenge Watt in primary
Democrat files for NC-13
T-shirt from Yow's past haunts campaign
Bellamy: 'I'm in it to win it'

Statewide
Governor
Dalton campaigns in Greenville
Lt. Gov. Dalton ties McCrory to GOP NCGA
Democrats on defense in governors' races
Cumberland County man running for Governor
A crowded Republican primary for governor?
Christensen: Good ol' boys still around
Perdue: 'Polls don't matter'
Reality Check: Rep. Faison's TV ad promises
White House playing favorites in Gov race?
Another Republican candidate for governor
Dalton targets those searching for a candidate
GOP sheriff's endorse McCrory
90-year old files in Dem primary for Governor

NC Council of State
Manfield enters race for Lt. Governor
Beitler touts experience
Commerce chief Crisco eyeing Lt. Gov. run
Dellinger won't run for Lt. Governor
Faircloth endorses Gurley
Conversation with Mike Causey
Morgan runs for state insurance chief
Glazier drops out of superintendent race

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
Sen. Goolsby gets a Dem challenger
Senate District 44 hopefuls discuss education
Apodaca faces primary for Senate seat
Ric Marshall announces run for NC Senate
Polk Democrat files to challenge Sen. Hise
Sen. Vaughan bows out
Ex DMV commissioner runs for Senate
Erv Portman seeks leap to state Senate
Sen. Dan Blue rules out governor's race

N.C. House
Skip Stam gets an opponent
Brawley targets a return to NC House
Dems filing in Forsyth County House districts
Ford runs for House District 76
Folwell wants to improve education
Republicans vie for Assembly seats
Two Wake Dems avoid primary fight
Rep. McComas to bow out
Kure Beach Mayor to file for House District 19
Troyer aims for victory in District 76 race

Other Political News
Christensen: Good ol' boys still around

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2012 - Another High-Turnover Election Year

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 12:03:14 -0500

With less than a week until the close of North Carolina's candidate filing period on Wednesday, February 29, some potential candidates are still determining if they will run for elected office in 2012. Meanwhile, others, including a substantial number of currently serving lawmakers, have decided to run for another office or not to run at all, creating a multitude of open seat races. As of this writing, there are two open statewide offices (Governor and Lt. Governor), three open congressional districts, 10 open State Senate districts and 34 open State House districts. This, of course, is on top of the large amount of turnover we saw after the 2010 election when nearly a third of the members of the N.C. Senate and a quarter of the N.C. House were new to the General Assembly. The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation is still in the midst of checking past turnover statistics, but surely two successive elections featuring such high turnover have not occurred in quite a while. Below is a chart, modified from our 2012 Turnover Tracker, detailing incumbents that are either running for another office or retiring in 2012. (To see who has filed so far see our 2012 Election Tracker.)

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NCFEF staff John Rustin, Jonathan Kappler, and Meaghan Lewis contributed to this report.

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Federal Races
President
Vice President coming to NC this week
Presidential candidates raising money in NC
Obama's campus efforts start at NCCU
Obama campaign chief: NC vote 'key'

U.S. House
Wingfield 'on the radar' with GOP
Hunt claims frontrunner status NC-11
Dems running for NC-10 make their case
Attorney challenges Kissell in House primary
Republican files to challenge Rep. David Price
Broadway woman to challenge Ellmers
Watt files for 11th term
Ellmers says she will seek re-election
Eichenbaum drops NC-11 bid
Patterson says he's a frontrunner in NC-11
Pittenger to run for 9th Congressional seat
Foxx files for Fifth District seat

Statewide
Governor
McCrory names campaign manager
Dem NC Guv candidates begin primary push
McCrory disavows dig at Perdue
Triad elections critic files to run for Governor
Faison launches first TV ad in governor's race
Guv hopeful Dalton says he's 'battle-tested'
Another Republican files for governor's race
GOP optimistic about '12 Gubernatorial races

NC Council of State
Candidate calls for official's firing
Janet Cowell gets prime time on GMA
Mansfield kicks off campaign for Lt. Governor
Stephen Jackson to lead Coleman campaign
Mansfield raises $30,000 in campaign kick-off
SEANC could spend a lot to boost Coleman

State Legislative Races
N.C. Senate
GOP primary assured in Senate District 44
Apodaca to run for another term in Senate
As Womble steps down, he backs Parmon
NC Senate Dems name new caucus director
Davis, Moffitt violate ethics rules
Hutchinson files to challenge Hunt for Senate
Holmes makes GOP bid in Senate District 22

N.C. House
Jerter to run for new House District 92
Whilden wants rematch with Moffitt
Rep. Justice decides to sit out 2012 elections
Mebane man files to run for state House seat
McGuirt not running for NC House in 2012
Dockham files to keep House seat
Davis, Moffitt violate ethics rules

Other Political News
Excitement palpable at GOP gathering
Unaffiliated voters on the increase since 2008
More candidates file for election in Orange Co.

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